Climate conference in Copenhagen ends with statement of intent

COPENHAGEN — After two weeks of delays, theatrics and frantic deal-making, the U.N. climate-change talks concluded in Copenhagen early Saturday with a grudging agreement by the participants to "take note" of a pact shaped by five major nations, including the United States.

The final "Copenhagen Accord," a 12-paragraph document, was a statement of intention — not a binding pledge to begin taking action on global warming — a compromise seen to represent a flawed but essential step forward.

Many delegates of the 193 countries that had gathered left Copenhagen in a sour mood, disappointed that the pact lacked so many elements they considered crucial, including firm targets for mid- or long-term reductions of greenhouse-gas emissions and a deadline for concluding a binding treaty next year.

Even President Obama, a principal force behind the final deal, said the accord would take only a modest step toward healing the Earth's fragile atmosphere.

Participants from a variety of countries also said the chaos and contentiousness of the talks could signal the end of what, for almost 20 years, had been viewed as the best approach to tackling the threat of a warming planet: the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and a series of 15 conventions following a 1992 climate summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

The process has become unworkable, many said, because it has proved virtually impossible to forge consensus among the disparate blocs of countries fighting over environmental guilt, future costs and who should referee the results.

"The climate-treaty process isn't going to die, but the real work of coordinating international efforts to reduce emissions will primarily occur elsewhere," said Michael Levi, who has been tracking the diplomatic effort for the Council on Foreign Relations.

That elsewhere will likely be a much smaller group of nations, roughly 30 countries responsible for 90 percent of global-warming emissions.

It was these nations that Obama rallied to sign a deal that starts a flow of financing for poor countries to adapt to climate change and sets up a system for major economies to monitor and report their greenhouse gas emissions.

This smaller group of nations will meet periodically to tackle a narrower agenda of issues, such as technology sharing or the merging of carbon-trading markets, without the chaos and posturing of the U.N. process.

The key elements of the Copenhagen Accord, worked out among the United States, China, Brazil, India and South Africa, on Friday:

• Nations agreed to cooperate in reducing emissions "with a view" to scientists' warnings to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F) above preindustrial levels.

• Developing nations will report every two years on their voluntary actions to reduce emissions. Those reports would be subject to "international consultations and analysis," a concession to the United States by China, which had seen this as an intrusion on its sovereignty.

• Richer nations will finance a $10 billion-a-year, three-year program to pay for poorer nations' projects to deal with drought and other climate-change impacts, and to develop clean energy.

• They also set a "goal" of mobilizing $100 billion-a-year by 2020 for the same adaptation and mitigation purposes.

But even if countries live up to their commitments on gas emissions, a gap remains between the nations' combined pledges and what would be required to avert the risks of disruptive changes in rainfall and drought, ecosystems and polar-ice cover from global warming, scientists say.

The chances of success substantially hinge on whether Obama can fulfill his promises to reduce American greenhouse-gas emissions and raise tens of billions of dollars to help other countries deal with global warming. That in turn depends in large part on whether Congress takes action on a bill that puts a price on carbon and devotes a substantial part of the proceeds to foreign aid. And that is no sure thing.

Yvo de Boer, the U.N. official who manages the climate negotiations, said that although the Copenhagen accord was "politically incredibly significant," it hardly moved the treaty process from where it was in 2007, when the world's countries pledged to complete a binding agreement here this year. "We have a lot of work to do on the road to Mexico," he said, in a reference to the next climate meeting to be held in Mexico City next year.

Even reaching the tenuous accord in Copenhagen was difficult, culminating in an impassioned debate on the floor of the plenary meeting that lasted into early Saturday. Speaker after speaker from the developing world denounced the deal as a sham process fashioned behind closed doors by a club of rich countries and large emerging powers.

The debate reached such a pitch that the Sudanese delegate likened the effect of the accord on poor nations to the Holocaust.

Ultimately, all but a handful of countries — Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan and Saudi Arabia among them — went along with the decision to accept the document.

Material from The Associated Press is included in this report.