Deal near with Iran to transfer uranium

BEIRUT — Deft diplomacy and regional security woes are driving Iran and the United States toward a deal on Iran's nuclear program, experts say, illustrated by movement Wednesday in talks to transfer most of the Islamic Republic's fissile material abroad to be processed for medical uses.

Iranian, American, Russian and French diplomats agreed to a proposal by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for most of Iran's nuclear material to be sent to Russia and France for further processing for an Iranian medical reactor.

The deal, which must be signed by Friday, could fall apart if one party refuses to sign or insists on tinkering.

Modest in scope, it fails to address many of the West's suspicions about Iran's nuclear program, including its continued production of enriched uranium in defiance of the U.N. Security Council, the discovery of documents that purport to show Iran engaged in experiments consistent with a clandestine nuclear-weapons program or the recently revealed secret enrichment facility near Qom. It also does not address the possibility that Iran has built a secret parallel program not subject to international scrutiny.

But the proposal would buy the United States and its allies a year's time by reducing Iran's stockpile below the threshold necessary to produce a nuclear bomb. It also allows Iran to retain its coveted ability to enrich uranium while building in safeguards that the material would not be diverted to produce weapons.

"Everybody who participated at the meeting was trying to help, trying to look to the future and not to the past, trying to heal the wounds that existed for many, many years," IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said in Vienna. "I very much hope that people see the big picture, see that this agreement could open the way for a complete normalization of relations between Iran and the international community."

U.S. officials view the draft agreement as a "very positive step," said Ian Kelly, a State Department spokesman. But he added that the administration is circulating it widely within the government to make sure there are no objections.

The Obama administration came into office vowing to actively pursue diplomacy with Iran. Using the IAEA mandate to help states gain access to peaceful nuclear technology as a tool to reduce Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium lets both Iran and the West walk away winners.

"I think that Obama and his European allies have played their hand well in using the Qom revelation to their advantage and taking advantage of Iran's various vulnerabilities to encourage it to find a way forward," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert and former U.S. diplomat now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "The major powers have done this in a way that gives Iran a face-saving way to make some concessions."

But the deal also implicitly legitimizes Iran's enrichment of uranium. If that is Iran's goal, it could be an ideal time for the Islamic Republic to strike a deal.

Experts say Iran is in its most vulnerable position in years. Revelation of the existence of the Qom facility has weakened it diplomatically and led to intense pressure that might force it to open its nuclear facilities to closer scrutiny. And political unrest over the disputed June 12 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues in the capital and other major cities.

Iran's hard-liners could perceive a deal as a threat to their clout.

"In principle, the reformists regard the nuclear issue as one of national interests. The hard-liners consider it as ideological and a matter of prestige," said Ahmad Shirzad, a nuclear expert and prominent opposition supporter in Tehran.

And pressing any advantage too far with Iran could backfire, said Stephane Dudoignon, a French scholar and professor at the University of Amsterdam.

"If they feel vulnerable," Dudoignon said, "they may react in very violent ways and enter into a logic of systematic confrontation."