Early returns show solid Irish `yes' to EU treaty

Ireland has strongly approved the European Union's reform treaty on the second attempt, the government and analysts declared Saturday as partial counts of ballots indicated an overwhelming swing to the pro-treaty side.

Electoral officials said "yes" votes were outnumbering "no" in virtually all of Ireland's 43 constituencies - the exact reverse of what happened when Ireland stunned Europe last year by rejecting the Lisbon Treaty.

Foreign Minister Micheal Martin, who directed the government's campaign culminating in Friday's referendum rerun, said it looked like Ireland would ratify the treaty with a "yes" vote exceeding 60 percent nationwide. Official results come later Saturday.

"I'm absolutely delighted for the country. It looks like a convincing win on this occasion," Martin said. "It's good for Ireland, because I do passionately believe our future is in the European Union - and there was no real reason to vote no."

Socialist Party leader Joe Higgins - one of the few elected Irish politicians to campaign against the treaty - said the early returns made his side's defeat inevitable.

Higgins blamed what he called "one of the most unequal and unbalanced campaigns in our history," including pro-treaty interventions from business heavyweights Ryanair and Intel.

Many analysts said they were surprised to see early returns running at 60 percent or more in favor of the treaty, following a bitterly contested campaign during which anti-EU campaigners again claimed that an empowered Brussels would raise Ireland's taxes, slash its minimum wage, force its soldiers into a European army and legalize abortion and euthanasia.

Trinity College Dublin political analyst Michael Gallagher said he was confident that at least 60 percent of voters had said "yes," and perhaps up to 65 percent.

Another analyst, Sean Donnelly, said "it looks like it could be a clean sweep" - with all 43 constituencies recording pro-treaty majorities. He said the change from 2008 was particularly startling in the eight districts that recorded "no" votes exceeding 60 percent last time.

Ireland's initial rejection threatened to derail the EU's painstakingly negotiated plans to modernize its institutions. The treaty requires unanimous ratification across the 27-nation bloc, and the Irish are the only ones requiring its approval by popular vote.

The treaty - agreed in the Portuguese capital in 2007 - spells out how the EU would reshape its decision-making, size and image in line with its rapid expansion eastward this decade. It proposes to increase the ability of leaders to make decisions with majority rather than unanimous votes, but also gives more influence in policy-shaping to national legislatures and the European Parliament.

All the other EU nations already have passed the treaty through their national parliaments. Only the heads of state of Poland and the Czech Republic have yet to withhold their assent, citing Ireland's uncertain approval.

The Irish agreed to vote again after EU leaders offered key assurances designed to undermine the anti-treaty arguments. The EU dropped its plans to prune the size of the European Commission, a move that would have cost Ireland its right to hold a seat continuously on the EU's key executive body. Brussels also reiterated, in formal declarations appended to the treaty, that it would have no bearing on Ireland's taxes, military neutrality or moral codes.

A second Irish rebuff would have killed the treaty and forced EU chiefs into uncharted diplomatic waters. Pressure would have built to chart a way forward that would not be subject to another Irish veto - the long-threatened "two-speed Europe" in which a core of like-minded nations moved ahead of naysayers like Ireland.