PROMISES, PROMISES: Politics shadow Obama's pledge

President Barack Obama made the world his boldest promise yet Wednesday in the battle to slow the heating of the planet, committing the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gases by 80 percent by mid-century.

The catch is that politics at home will determine if the U.S. - and Obama - can deliver.

While the president has long said he wants to meet an 80 percent target by 2050, and a bill recently passed by the House would achieve that goal, whether it becomes a reality depends on the Senate, where the legislation's success is far from assured.

And what the G-8 talks in Italy failed to settle - chiefly getting developing countries to agree to halve worldwide emissions in the next 40 years - is likely to only further unsettle the situation in Congress.

Republicans and moderate Democrats had already expressed concern about the U.S. taking steps independently of other large emitters such as India and China, despite the White House and Democratic leaders arguing the U.S. needs to lead in order for them to come on board.

News that the agreement Wednesday did not include developing countries, despite a successful push by the White House and House Democratic leaders to pass the House bill before the G-8 summit, bolstered their criticism.

"Without participation from China and India, anything we do here at home would impose burdensome costs on consumers in the form of higher electricity, gas and food prices, all for no climate gain," said Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe, the top Republican on the panel drafting the Senate's version of the bill.

"Unless supporters of cap-and-trade legislation can develop a plan to convince China and India to make meaningful emissions reductions on par with the United States, no such bill will pass the U.S. Senate," he said.

Frank Loy, the chief U.S. climate negotiator from 1998-2000, said that it is premature to rule out participation from developing countries, but added that without provisions to encourage their involvement, the legislation's chances will dim.

"It will be very difficult for the U.S. to persuade some members of Congress to adopt any kind of legislation if they can't see ... that there will be meaningful efforts by developing countries who are major emitters," Loy said.

Obama administration officials, speaking at a press conference in Italy, downplayed the stance of developing countries, saying that more progress is expected after the Major Economies Forum meets on Thursday. They also said there is still time left to negotiate before 192 nations sit down in Copenhagen, Denmark, to hammer out a new U.N. treaty to reduce greenhouse gases. That agreement will replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

The U.S. never ratified the agreement.

"We're still a fair ways away from Copenhagen, and we'll be working with the developing countries between now and then to firm up commitments," said Mike Froman, deputy national security adviser for international economics.

Back at home, Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate said that the House bill, which would impose the first nationwide limits on heat-trapping gases, enabled the Obama administration to commit to an 80 percent reduction. The legislation would put a price on emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, forcing the transition to less-polluting energy sources by making it more expensive for industries burning coal, oil and other fossil fuels to do business.

"The legislation was game-changing," said Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who sponsored the bill with California Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman. "Today we are seeing the first results of that change."

Senate Democrats are hoping to have the bill clear committee by August, with a vote in the Senate sometime in the fall before the Copenhagen meetings.

"Our target and our goal is to have passed something in the Senate," said Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., who is one of the key players in drafting that bill. He said the pledge made by Obama on Wednesday depends on it.