Fire danger already here in parched NW forests

Moss in parts of the Hoh Rain Forest, usually damp and springy, now crackles underfoot.

Boggy areas near the coast that typically hold 3 to 4 inches of water are kicking up dust.

And the thicker trees in the northern Cascades, the ones that fuel and sustain big, hot fires, are drying out more every afternoon.

Remnants of the state's reasonably wet winter are evaporating as the region transitions to a potentially combustible summer.

Even in damp Western Washington, a long rainless stretch in June — the last serious rainfall came May 19 — has helped set up wildfire conditions not normally seen until summer's end.

"About once every 10 years we get into a fairly good summer for wildfire potential," said Larry Nickey, the fire-management officer for Olympic National Park. "Right now, it looks like it could be that once-in-10-years summer."

Of course, trying to forecast a wildfire season's severity before it starts is a bit like trying to pocket plumes of smoke. Big fires require a host of conditions at once: parched forests and heavy winds or steep hillsides, low humidity and, of course, a spark. Weather conditions can change, and speedy, effective fire crews can sometimes knock back the worst blazes.

But already King County has seen twice as many brush fires as it had in any of the previous three years. And as parts of the Northwest saw 10 or 20 times more mountain snow than normal this year, other areas saw less and are drying out lightning fast.

In the southern Puget Sound region, trees 3 to 9 inches in diameter hold less moisture than they have in a decade, said Chuck Frame, a fire-operations manager for the Washington Department of Natural Resources.

"In mid-April, I was thinking 'Is it ever going to quit raining?' " he recalled. "Now I'm thinking, 'Boy I wish it would rain.' "

And from the Olympic Peninsula, which rarely sees large fires, to Okanogan County, which sees one almost every year, northern areas are several times drier than those to the south. While parts of eastern Oregon's high sage desert had five times more rainfall in the last month than normal, the winter snows that green up the Methow Valley were barely half what they are in a normal year. Olympic National Park is drier still.

"We're most concerned about the eastern side of the park," Nickey said. "But we had someone come back from Ozette Lake (near the coast) and say areas that are normally in 3 or 4 inches of bog were dry as a bone."

During a controlled burn outside Anacortes only a week ago, Jim Prange, wildfire expert with the National Weather Service, watched tiny tendrils of fire curl through underbrush and quickly gain enough heat and power to engulf bushes.

"That tells me the fuels are really where they should be in August," he said.

Currently, there are no campfire restrictions on the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie or Olympic national forests. But campfires are banned as of Friday on the Chelan, Entiat and Wenatchee River ranger districts of the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest.

Prange and other experts compared current conditions to those of the summer of 1994. That year, the Tyee fire outside Wenatchee scorched 135,000 acres, gutted three dozen homes and cabins and emptied out the towns of Leavenworth and Chelan. And that was just one of several large fires in the region.

Still, some of the factors that have kept Northwest wild lands from exploding may yet keep things in control. Temperatures have not reached searing heights, humidity levels have not dropped off dramatically, and the region has so far been spared the chinook winds from the east that turn forest underbrush into popcorn.

"Those winds can make things even drier, and they can come on at any time," said John Heckman, a fire expert with the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest.

Also working in the region's favor so far this year is relative dampness in other parts of the West. So few wildfires are burning in other states that Washington's elite firefighting crews — the Hotshot crews of Entiat and Baker River — have not been called out of the region to fight flames. In a normal year they would already have traveled to a fireline.

Instead, "right now my guys are doing trail work and some extra training to keep busy and keep in shape," said Kurt Ranta, one of the leaders of the Baker River crew.

And for much of the region, a few good summer rains still could make a big difference.

"If we were to get back to a normal rain cycle here pretty quick, that could bring us back to normal," said Nickey, on the Olympic Peninsula.

Craig Welch: 206-464-2093 or cwelch@seattletimes.com