Enigmatic choices create a fuzzy future

WASHINGTON — Sarah Palin demonstrated once again Friday that she is one of America's most unconventional politicians, following an unpredictable path to an uncertain future.

That the Alaska governor has a flair for the theatrical and plays by her own rules were illustrated anew by her stunning announcement that she will not seek re-election in 2010 and that she will resign her office this month.

But are Palin's rules those of someone with the capacity to seek and win her party's presidential nomination in 2012, as many believe is her goal, or of someone who has flashed like a meteor across the political skies but with limited impact? That question was at the center of the discussion Friday among Republican strategists baffled by what they had just heard from Alaska.

Palin's decision to exit the governorship was as sudden as her arrival on the national stage after Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., selected her to be his 2008 vice-presidential running mate. From that day in August, to Friday, she has been one of the country's most compelling and controversial politicians, and almost always one of the most enigmatic.

Palin's statement was ambiguous with regard to her future. "We know we can effect positive change outside government at this point in time on another scale and actually make a difference for our priorities," she said, hinting at larger ambitions. But she also expressed weariness over what she called "superficial, wasteful, political blood sport." Was that a hint that she intends to turn away from elective politics?

Certainly, after a week in which she was the target of new attacks over her performance in the 2008 campaign, slipping into the background might be a welcome tonic for Palin and her family.

But even if that were her first instinct, she will feel the tug of her supporters to remain in the forefront of the debate over the party's future, and many will push her to run for president.

"If this is about running for president, it's about as odd a way as we've ever seen," said John Weaver, a Republican strategist.

Their reasoning followed conventional assumptions about what it takes to mount a national campaign, that in surrendering the governor's office in Alaska, she brings a conclusion to her brief tenure in statewide office, leaving behind a thin record on which to base a national campaign.

Yet, it has been obvious that Alaska is a difficult place from which to participate in the national debate because of its physical distance from the rest of the United States and because of its culture and identity. Freed of the constraints of her office, Palin could, if she chooses, become a more engaged participant in the national debate.

"My contrarian take is, almost everyone I talk to thinks it's crazy, but I wonder, maybe it's crazy like a fox," said Bill Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, who has been out defending Palin this past week.

Kristol's view is that spending an additional 18 months in office in Alaska will not convince skeptics she is ready to be president. Instead, he said, she can use the time to travel the country and the world, to immerse herself in policy issues and to campaign for Republican candidates.

"It's a heckuva gamble, but it might pay off," he said.

Democratic and Republican strategists agree she has charisma and a personality that connects with people.

"The skills she has are formidable and unteachable," Mark Salter, who was one of McCain's top advisers, said after he heard the news of her impending resignation.

But along with those skills have come a variety of questions, including whether she has the experience and knowledge of the world required of a successful national candidate.

At critical moments in the campaign last year, she stumbled on this front, particularly in her interview with CBS anchor Katie Couric. Though she held her own in the vice-presidential debate with Democrat Joseph Biden, questions about her expertise dogged her. By the end of the campaign, she had lost support among independents, many of whom judged her not ready to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Questions about her also include the soundness of her judgment and the quality of the advice she receives from those around her.

She created a needless controversy this spring over whether she would be the keynote speaker at a Republican fundraising dinner in Washington, D.C., causing grumbling among GOP insiders.

Still another set of questions focused on her reliability. Those came back this week with a lengthy Vanity Fair article in which former McCain advisers went after Palin. Other Republicans rose to her defense, but Friday's announcement is certain to bring new questions about why she needs to step down 18 months before her term ends.

All of that may mean little to the supporters who flocked to Palin during the presidential campaign and who remain loyal. She had far more appeal than McCain last year and drew far bigger crowds than he ever could.

A Republican strategist who got to know her over the past year and who declined to be identified, said: "She has a base in the party that's motivated like no one else's, and this decision won't bother them. I don't know if she'll run. I don't know if she could win if she ran. But I'm sure she has a shot."