Analysis: Syria deals with Gaza, eyeing own peace

Syria has responded to Israel's Gaza offensive with harsh words for the Israelis and expressions of firm support for Hamas. But it's unlikely to do much more.

With its nemesis President George W. Bush just days from leaving office, Syria does not want to do anything to deepen its diplomatic isolation from the United States or to anger President-elect Barack Obama. Rather, Obama's election has filled many here with hope for better U.S.-Syrian relations.

"Syria's strategic outlook is based on long-term constants and dynamics more than specific events," said Peter Harling, a Syria specialist with the International Crisis Group. "So far, the Gaza conflict hasn't fundamentally altered the regional equation."

Syria has strongly denounced the Gaza offensive, in which about 760 Palestinians had died by early Friday. President Bashar Assad said Tuesday that Israel's actions there amounted to war crimes. In a largely symbolic move, Syria also suspended its indirect, Turkish-mediated peace negotiations with Israel, though the talks had stopped last year after four inconclusive rounds when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced he was stepping down.

By sticking to symbolic gestures and rhetoric - rather than encouraging Hezbollah and Lebanon-based Palestinian groups to attack Israel - Syria may be hoping to encourage an Obama administration to think of it favorably, and perhaps grant its longtime wish for active U.S. involvement in Israeli peace talks.

For its part, Syria says it's optimistic about Obama's future policy in the Middle East, but remains cautious, warning that the Bush legacy left much to be done.

"Only time will draw the boundaries of our optimism or pessimism," said Fayssal Mekdad, Syria's deputy foreign minister. "One can see that the new administration has a special interest in dealing with the (Mideast) problem. We feel good about that."

Syria's response to two attacks on its own soil - the 2007 bombing by Israel of a suspected nuclear facility and a cross-border U.S. raid last October against a purported Iraqi insurgency cell - were similarly restrained.

Perhaps because of that, Syria has made significant headway in efforts to break out of its isolation, with a stream of Western dignitaries, including French President Nicolas Sarkozy, visiting Damascus in recent months.

Syria has for years maintained close ties with Hamas, one of several anti-Israel militant groups that Damascus supports to gain leverage in any future peace negotiations with Israel. Damascus also has close political and military ties with Iran.

These alliances, and Syria's alleged meddling in Iraq and Lebanon, caused a serious strain in relations between Damascus and Washington after Bush came to office in 2000. That was the year that direct Syrian-Israeli talks collapsed over the extent of the Jewish state's pullout from the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured by Israel 41 years ago.

Obama promised during the campaign to speak to Syria. But it's unclear whether Syria can, or is indeed willing, to abandon its militant allies and walk away from decades of radical policies underpinning its image as a standard bearer of the Arab struggle against Israel.

"Much depends on Syria's actions, rather than words, and on Syrian relations with Lebanon and Iraq," said former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "If Syria is more flexible, the Obama administration seems ready to respond."

At stake is the legitimacy of Assad's regime, built in large part on the anti-Israel legacy of his late father, President Hafez Assad. The Syrians must decide whether peace with Israel and improved relations with the West can bring the country sufficient rewards to justify a break with the past.

For Assad, breaking out of years of isolation can't come too soon. The Syrians stress they have waited for so long they will not accept less than a full Israeli pullout from the Golan as the price for peace.

Diplomats and experts say Israel for its part demands that Syria halts its support to Lebanon's Hezbollah, which fought a monthlong war against Israel in 2006, and radical Palestinian groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

"This is no longer about territory and probably never was. It is about forcing new strategic realities in the Middle East in order to contain growing Iranian power," said Bilal Saab, a Syria expert from the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "I believe, and the Israelis do too, that Bashar is able to deliver."

---

Hamza Hendawi covers the Middle East for The Associated Press.