2009 is Cuba's "year of living dangerously"

MEXICO CITY — The second half-century of the Cuban Revolution will begin like the first — with a Castro in charge.

But after Cuba toasts that 50th anniversary today, President Raul Castro faces difficult choices on whether to alter that revolutionary vision, choices that will be watched throughout the Americas. Especially in Washington, D.C.

Castro, Fidel's younger brother, has expressed optimism that President-elect Obama might thaw relations and even loosen the U.S. trade embargo. Obama has already called for lifting restrictions on money sent by Cuban-Americans to relatives on the island.

The domestic outlook isn't as hopeful for Castro since he took over as president in February from Fidel, who hasn't been seen in public since 2006 while he battles an unconfirmed illness.

Cuba faces food shortages caused by three hurricanes in 2008 that slashed farm production by a third. Its economy is on the ropes because of a global financial meltdown and Venezuela's uncertain future as benefactor.

Analysts say the crisis could cause the 77-year-old Castro to tighten his authoritarian grip or force modest reforms, such as expanding private food production.

Speaking in the run-up to Thursday's festivities, Castro evoked the revolution's glories as a pep talk to overcome the current challenges, which he called "particularly intense and complex."

"We Cuban revolutionaries can look toward the past with our heads held high and toward the future with the same confidence in our strength and capacity to resist," he said.

Upon taking office, Castro made some concessions such as letting his citizens buy cellphones. He let Cubans stay in hotels geared to foreign visitors, putting an end to the "tourism apartheid" that many locals despised.

But analysts say the past year's hurricanes threw other modest reforms off track, including experiments to let farmers sell excess production in private markets. The government has consolidated control over agriculture after the storms caused an estimated $10 billion in damage.

Now Cubans are dealing with soaring food prices, producing the kind of angst that could cause the social unrest that has long spooked the Castro brothers, political analyst Daniel Erikson said.

"A lot of the goodwill that Raul has accrued has worn off," said Erikson, author of the recently published "The Cuba Wars," about the U.S.-Cuba relationship. "For Raul, next year will be the year of living dangerously."

The incoming administration presents a wild card, Erikson said, as Obama has said he wants to ease restrictions on how Cuban-Americans can travel and send money to the island. He also said he might meet with Castro if negotiations have properly laid the groundwork.

Obama might have greater options because the political risk of lifting the embargo has decreased. This month, a Florida International University poll found that 55 percent of Cuban-Americans in Florida favor lifting the embargo, a number boosted by a younger generation that has never known life under Castro.

While mounting billboards all over Cuba that condemn the embargo, the Castros surely worry that lifting it would shine an unflattering spotlight on their economic management, said Patrick Doherty of the New America Foundation, a public policy institute.

"It's a tough situation for Raul," said Doherty, who directs the group's U.S.-Cuba 21st Century Policy Initiative. "The embargo has been the backbone of the Castro regime. (Lifting it) will reduce the ability of his regime to blame the U.S. for the problems that Cuba faces."

Cuba's short-term future is likely to become clearer in 2009, when the ruling Communist Party holds its first national congress since 1997, an event that reorganizes the party's leadership and crafts its governing blueprint.

Mark Falcoff, a Latin America analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said it will be difficult to turn the page as long as Fidel Castro remains behind the scenes, meeting with foreign leaders and writing columns for Granma, the government newspaper.

Raul Castro's intentions are harder to gauge, Falcoff said. On the one hand, he has promised change. But he also is regarded as a pragmatist and has recently cracked down on a growing community of bloggers and a fledgling dissident group known as Flamur.

"The question is: What does Raul want?" Falcoff said. "If he were smart, he'd keep things going the way they are. That crowd has been in power for 50 years. They have a winning formula. Why change anything?"