Study forecasts weaker al-Qaida, but U.S. dominance also to ebb

WASHINGTON — A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests al-Qaida soon could be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.

While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting al-Qaida remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support and self-destructive actions."

"The appeal of terrorism is waning," said Mathew Burrows, head of long-range analysis in the office of the director of national intelligence and a lead author of "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Burrows said polls and anecdotal evidence strongly suggested disillusionment among Muslims with al-Qaida and its methods and goals since the 2001 terrorist attacks.

The predicted decline of al-Qaida is one of the few bright spots in the generally gloomy report, which describes a decline in the United States' world dominance as China, India and other powers assert themselves.

It depicts a world riven by increased conflict over scarce food and water supplies and threatened by rogue states and terrorists, widening gaps between rich and poor and an uneven impact of global warming. It said the chance of the use of nuclear weapons, while remaining "very low," would rise in the next two decades as nuclear technology spread.

"Those states most susceptible to conflict are in a great arc of instability stretching from sub-Saharan Africa through North Africa, into the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and South and Central Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia," it says.

By 2025, the report predicted, "the U.S. will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage," playing "a prominent role in global events" but not a decisive one as in the past.

The authors say, however, that foreign leaders, including in Beijing, will continue to view U.S. global engagement as essential — as long as it not driven by unilateralism.

China is said to be "poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country." The study projects that by 2025, China will have the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States', and it "will be a leading military power."

Among the other major powers, Russia has the potential to be richer and more powerful, but only if it expands and diversifies its resource-driven economy. And the authors believe that countries such as Indonesia, Turkey and a possible post-clerical Iran could play dynamic roles in their neighborhoods.

At the heart of its deepest pessimism is the Middle East, which it suggests could tip into a nuclear-arms race if Iran goes ahead with such weapons.

"The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran spawning a nuclear-arms race in the greater Middle East will bring new security challenges to an already conflict-prone region, particularly in conjunction with the proliferation of long-range missile systems," the report says. "... If nuclear weapons are used destructively in the next 15-20 years, the international system will be shocked as it experiences immediate humanitarian, economic and political-military repercussions."

The report said the global shift from West to East in terms of wealth and economic power "is without precedent in modern history." Of a projected population increase of 1.2 billion worldwide by 2025, only 3 percent will take place in Western countries, it said.

"We're projecting a multipolar world," C. Thomas Fingar, chairman of the National Intelligence Council and the government's top intelligence analyst, said Thursday at a briefing on the report. "The unipolar moment is over, or certainly will be over by 2025."

Fingar acknowledged the report, in the works for months, did not fully reflect the severity of the global economic crisis. But he said intelligence officials chose not to delay the report, because they thought the long-term impact of the economic downturn would not be clear for months.

The Global Trends reports are produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council, which represents all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, in part to inform long-term thinking by new administrations.