Originally published Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Study forecasts weaker al-Qaida, but U.S. dominance also to ebb
A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests al-Qaida soon could be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
WASHINGTON — A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests al-Qaida soon could be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting al-Qaida remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support and self-destructive actions."
"The appeal of terrorism is waning," said Mathew Burrows, head of long-range analysis in the office of the director of national intelligence and a lead author of "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Burrows said polls and anecdotal evidence strongly suggested disillusionment among Muslims with al-Qaida and its methods and goals since the 2001 terrorist attacks.
The predicted decline of al-Qaida is one of the few bright spots in the generally gloomy report, which describes a decline in the United States' world dominance as China, India and other powers assert themselves.
It depicts a world riven by increased conflict over scarce food and water supplies and threatened by rogue states and terrorists, widening gaps between rich and poor and an uneven impact of global warming. It said the chance of the use of nuclear weapons, while remaining "very low," would rise in the next two decades as nuclear technology spread.
"Those states most susceptible to conflict are in a great arc of instability stretching from sub-Saharan Africa through North Africa, into the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and South and Central Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia," it says.
By 2025, the report predicted, "the U.S. will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage," playing "a prominent role in global events" but not a decisive one as in the past.
The authors say, however, that foreign leaders, including in Beijing, will continue to view U.S. global engagement as essential — as long as it not driven by unilateralism.
China is said to be "poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country." The study projects that by 2025, China will have the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States', and it "will be a leading military power."
Among the other major powers, Russia has the potential to be richer and more powerful, but only if it expands and diversifies its resource-driven economy. And the authors believe that countries such as Indonesia, Turkey and a possible post-clerical Iran could play dynamic roles in their neighborhoods.
At the heart of its deepest pessimism is the Middle East, which it suggests could tip into a nuclear-arms race if Iran goes ahead with such weapons.
"The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran spawning a nuclear-arms race in the greater Middle East will bring new security challenges to an already conflict-prone region, particularly in conjunction with the proliferation of long-range missile systems," the report says. "... If nuclear weapons are used destructively in the next 15-20 years, the international system will be shocked as it experiences immediate humanitarian, economic and political-military repercussions."
![]()
The report said the global shift from West to East in terms of wealth and economic power "is without precedent in modern history." Of a projected population increase of 1.2 billion worldwide by 2025, only 3 percent will take place in Western countries, it said.
"We're projecting a multipolar world," C. Thomas Fingar, chairman of the National Intelligence Council and the government's top intelligence analyst, said Thursday at a briefing on the report. "The unipolar moment is over, or certainly will be over by 2025."
Fingar acknowledged the report, in the works for months, did not fully reflect the severity of the global economic crisis. But he said intelligence officials chose not to delay the report, because they thought the long-term impact of the economic downturn would not be clear for months.
The Global Trends reports are produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council, which represents all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, in part to inform long-term thinking by new administrations.
Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company
UPDATE - 10:01 AM
Rebels tighten hold on Libya oil port
UPDATE - 09:29 AM
Reality leads US to temper its tough talk on Libya
UPDATE - 09:38 AM
2 Ark. injection wells may be closed amid quakes
Armed guards save Dutch couple from Somali pirates
Navy to release lewd video investigation findings

general classifieds
Garage & estate salesFurniture & home furnishings
Electronics
just listed
***Stunning Akc POMERANIAN baby girl W/ FUL...
2007 Kubota BX24 Loader & Backhoe
2007 Ranger Z20 Comanche
More listings
POST A FREE LISTING
- Agency set to investigate handling of 911 call about Josh Powell
- Proposal to link Market, aquarium may be too ambitious for Seattle
- Chilling 911 tapes reveal pleas for help to go to Josh Powell home
- UW's Shawn Kemp Jr. makes own way despite familiar name, number | Steve Kelley
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- NBA's David Stern open to league returning to Seattle
- Prosecutor: Powell's final act ends doubt he killed wife
- Was idea of court-ordered test too much for Josh Powell?
- Local aerospace suppliers say they feel squeezed by Boeing
- California gay-marriage ruling may affect Washington
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature
387 - Historic day for gay marriage as another fight looming
335 - Sheriff's office unhappy with 911 dispatcher in caseworker's call
275 - Gay-marriage ruling may affect Washington or Prop. 8 ruling could reach into Washington
210 - 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
209 - Source: NY, California to sign mortgage settlement
176 - Study shows link between payroll and wins not as big as before, but teams like Mariners still face bigger obstacles than others
113 - Lakewood cop accused of taking donations for slain officers' families
102 - Pac-12 picks ... including the UW game
88 - Department of Justice owes the Seattle Police Department an apology
77
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Here it is: The secret to stir-fried chicken | Taste
- Local aerospace suppliers say they feel squeezed by Boeing
- Dicks channeled federal money to Puget Sound project his son ran
- Buttoned Up: Nine immutable laws of time management
- 'Gauguin and Polynesia': dazzling mix-and-match | Art review
- Happy Hour: French-accented charm at Gainsbourg
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature
- One man's audacious pursuit of sailing history
