McCain's Pennsylvania push not paying off; polls show double-digit Obama lead

WASHINGTON — John McCain's efforts to snare Pennsylvania appear to be faltering despite a major commitment of his time, leaving him with a narrower path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

McCain is targeting Pennsylvania in hopes of winning at least one state that voted for Democrat John Kerry in the 2004 election. With 21 electoral votes, a victory there could offset possible losses in smaller states captured by President Bush in the last contest.

Yet by any number of measures, McCain's prospects are dimming. An aggregate of public polls shows Barack Obama with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 1.1 million, about twice the gap in 2004, state figures show.

What's more, prominent Republicans worry that McCain's message is flawed or is being drowned out by waves of paid Obama ads.

McCain aides insist they can win Pennsylvania. Recognizing the stakes, McCain is spending much of the remaining time traversing the state.

Depriving Obama of a win here is essential for McCain. If Obama holds Pennsylvania, he could clinch the presidency by putting together various combinations of states that voted Republican four years ago but are tilting Democratic: Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina, among them.

A look at McCain's campaign schedule attests to his predicament. He is largely playing defense, trying to hold Republican territory.

Apart from Pennsylvania, he has campaigned since Friday in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Missouri — all states that backed Bush four years ago. Polls show Obama leading or nearly tied in each of them.

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said Tuesday: "Pennsylvania is essential to their [McCain's] victory plan, though it's a longshot. If you assume Iowa is gone and New Mexico is gone and Virginia is gone, they have to win a substantial blue state. And we're the best choice out of a lot of bad choices."

Rendell added that an Obama victory is no sure thing.

Race might be a complicating factor. Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., said last week that some in western Pennsylvania might be reluctant to vote for Obama because he is black.

"There's no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area," said Murtha, who represents part of the region. He later apologized.

Tuesday marked the 18th day McCain has visited Pennsylvania in the general-election contest.

Asked if McCain might return to Pennsylvania in the 13 days left in the campaign, senior adviser Mark Salter said: "Quite possibly."

For all the commitment McCain has made, some Republicans worry he faces mounting difficulties.

Richard Thornburgh, a former Pennsylvania governor, said that barring a "November surprise" the odds of a McCain victory are small. "That's the only thing that could turn it around, and I don't know what that could be," he said.