GOP says hurricane may delay convention

WASHINGTON — Republican officials said Thursday that they are considering delaying the start of the GOP convention because of Tropical Storm Gustav, which is on track to hit the Gulf Coast, and possibly New Orleans, as a full-force hurricane early next week.

The threat is serious enough that White House officials also are debating whether President Bush should cancel his scheduled convention appearance Monday, the first day of the convention, according to administration officials and others familiar with the discussion.

For Bush and Republican presidential candidate John McCain, Gustav threatens to provide an untimely reminder of Hurricane Katrina. A new major storm along the Gulf Coast would renew memories of one of the low points of the Bush administration, while pulling public attention away from McCain's formal coronation as the GOP presidential nominee.

Senior Republicans said images of political celebration in the Twin Cities while thousands of Americans flee a hurricane could be disastrous. "Senator McCain has always been sensitive to national crisis," said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, noting that McCain postponed announcing his presidential candidacy in 2000 because of the war in the Balkans. "We are monitoring the situation very closely."

Staging a convention during a major natural disaster would be a public-relations challenge for either political party. But GOP officials say the damage could be especially heavy for their party, whose reputation was tarnished by the Bush administration's bungling of Katrina and its aftermath in 2005.

A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico also could cast unwelcome attention on the offshore oil rigs that McCain has championed as a solution to rising gas prices — they are being evacuated in the face of the coming storm.

One senior GOP official said he does not anticipate a convention delay at this point, but he said the event would have to be reorganized if a large storm hit a major city on the coast.

"You would have to dramatically change the nature of what you do. Much less partisan. Much less political," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because internal discussions are ongoing. He added that all of the speakers would have to retool their addresses to reflect the storm and its impact. "Otherwise, it's the elephant in the room."

Gustav is the first serious storm to threaten the Gulf Coast in three years, and it presents the most substantial challenge to the nation's homeland-security apparatus since it was remade after Katrina, which hit three years ago today.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has raised the possibility of canceling his speech at the Republican convention because of Gustav, while New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin cut short his visit to this week's Democratic convention in Denver.

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said Thursday that it was "premature to say" whether the storm might have an impact on Bush's scheduled appearance Monday night. "These storms have a tendency to change, and so I don't have a scheduling update for you now," Perino said. "Right now everything is on schedule."

Some Republicans bemoaned an apparent GOP curse when it comes to summer storms and noted the contrast between the approach of Gustav and the sunny weather in Denver for the Democrats. "The Republicans can't seem to catch a break when it comes to August and when it comes to the weather," Karl Rove, a former Bush adviser, said Thursday on Fox News.

Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida as a Category 5 storm in August 1992, and the sluggish federal response was castigated by state leaders, as well as then-candidate Bill Clinton in his successful bid to defeat President George H.W. Bush that fall.

The current President Bush believed that the nation had dodged a bullet after Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005, only to realize belatedly that New Orleans had flooded and his administration's homeland-security apparatus was overwhelmed.

Experts said that important for Bush and perhaps for McCain will be the ability of U.S. officials to respond quickly to unforeseen problems and stay ahead of unfolding events, something they Katrina flooded in 2005.

"This may be the October surprise in September," said George Foresman, former undersecretary of preparedness for the Department of Homeland Security. "Public messaging and attention to the public-affairs part of the response is going to get added attention."