Georgia sees a brighter side of Russian invasion

TBILISI, Georgia — Many of this small onetime Soviet republic's most dreaded nightmares have come to pass.

Its expensive, fledgling military has been crushed. Russian soldiers stand on key chunks of its territory. Two separatist enclaves have declared independence — and been recognized by Moscow.

And so it seems improbable that a note of optimism should tinge the talk in this strafed country.

The brief war that erupted here this month was a crucial turning point, Georgians say, that showed the world the danger of contemporary Russia. Georgians now speak of themselves as a sort of sacrificial lamb whose travails will lead to greater international isolation of Russia — and benefit Georgia and other Western-leaning countries such as Ukraine.

"We have paid a very high price for this understanding among Western partners, but we also believe this price will be rewarded," said Alexander Lomaya, secretary of Georgia's National Security Council.

The payoffs in question range from the material to the ideological. Georgia is expecting hefty cash contributions from the West, especially the United States, to repair war damage and mend its battered military. For now, U.S. officials say they are focused on sending humanitarian aid.

Georgian leaders also are infused with fresh hopes of finally joining NATO, a long-deferred dream of President Mikhail Saakashvili.

In the past, the United States has lobbied for both Ukraine and Georgia to begin the process of entering the alliance, but Europe has been cool.

"I think maybe Europe made an honest mistake and miscalculated the danger posed by Russia to Europe and to the free world," said Giga Bokeria, Georgia's deputy foreign minister. "After this very transparent move, I think there is a much bigger awareness."

In public, Moscow has shrugged off the condemnation of the international community for showing off its military might against Georgia, and indicated Russia's readiness to endure greater isolation, if necessary.

Among Georgians, conventional wisdom holds that Moscow sought to destabilize Georgia's U.S.-backed government; scare other former Soviet republics away from the West; and prove to the world that Georgia is an inappropriate candidate for NATO membership.

But the strategy will make Georgians even more resistant, analysts predict.

"Georgia will never forgive Russia for what they have done," said Tornike Sharashenidze, of the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs. "Georgia will never move toward Russia."

Georgia appeared determined Wednesday to greet Russia's recognition of sovereignty for the separatists with a studied shrug. From analysts and politicians alike, the response was flat: Russia is alone, they said. Few other countries will ever recognize the rebels as independent nations. "Eventually Russia will be forced to leave, and those states will be a part of sovereign Georgia," Bokeria said. "Once Georgia is a part of Europe, that will happen."