Russia's actions in Georgia give Poland, neighbors jitters

WARSAW, Poland — Signing a missile-defense deal with the United States has earned Poland nothing less than the threat of nuclear attack from Russia — a threat that might not sound so empty these days, given that nation's bloody battle with Georgia.

That conflict has plunged Europe into serious crisis, sending waves of jitters through Poland and other eastern nations, once-occupied parts of a Soviet Empire that Russia some fear might want to reconstruct.

Russia's actions also have succeeded in driving deeper the geographic wedge in Europe.

"Slowly, the Iron Curtain is being rebuilt," said Jacek Palasinski, a foreign-affairs commentator for the Polish television network TVN24. "Europe will be divided again — the lines are different, pushed farther east, but the division is the same. And dangerous."

Old Europe and New Europe — neighbors who have bonded and traversed vast cultural and political barriers since the fall of communism — now must confront their differences. At the core, there is no deep divide over how they view the emergence of a bolder, more aggressive Russia as a global player.

But along their borders, there are sensitivities. The challenge directly ahead is how an expanded European Union and a more robust NATO — organizations that have steadily added members since the 1990s — can define a common diplomatic path and maintain productive, stable relations with a powerful Russia.

There are some practical dilemmas in their calculations.

Russia provides much of so-called "old Europe" — France, Germany and Italy — with their energy. There are also other political realities and alliances to consider.

Poland, in particular, has been wooed by the U.S. for months to provide land and support for a key missile-defense system.

Poland quickly cut the deal after last week's conflict flared in Georgia — falling in line with an old and trusted anti-Communist ally.

"There is a split and there is some confusion among these members," said Bernard Dreano, chairman of the Helsinki Citizens Assembly, a network of citizens groups in the Caucuses and in Eastern Europe. "European unification has never solved one essential problem: The problem of its surroundings.

"France has basically said we want to deal with Russia and we can deal with Russia, power to power. It's an attitude of global balance.

"The Polish position is quite different. They are saying: We want some protection and we want the Americans on our side. They are far away, they can protect us but not control us."

Ukraine and Moldova are worried they could be Russia's next targets. The Czech Republic, on the eve of the 40th anniversary of a Soviet invasion that crushed the "Prague Spring" reform movement, is fretting about history repeating itself.

Many Eastern European nations are eager to find safe haven and have turned to the United States for guidance and reassurance and partnerships.

But the fact that the overly stretched Bush administration did little to protect Georgia from Russia must give pause to nations that would throw their lot completely with the U.S.

Is the strategic alliance that many Eastern European countries have been building with the United States since the fall of communism nearly two decades ago still worth the risks?

"What other options have you got?" said Zbigniew Lewicki, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw. "You cannot conduct foreign policy based on fear of Russia. ... But they are a nasty neighbor. An alliance with the United States is a long-term investment."