Russian assault provokes anxiety in nearby states

KIEV, Ukraine — For 17 years now, several former satellites and republics of the Soviet Union have cherished their democracies, all made possible by the simple premise that the days of dominance by Moscow were over.

The events in Georgia over the past week have made them rethink that idea. Poland announced Thursday that it had reached a deal to base U.S. missile interceptors on its territory, after months of talks. But then a Russian general went so far as to say that Poland might draw nuclear Russian retaliation, sending new shudders through the region.

The sense of alarm may be greatest in Ukraine. Since the Orange Revolution began in 2004, bringing the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko to power after widespread protests, Ukraine has been a thorn in Moscow's side, though perhaps not as sharp as the outspoken Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili.

"We're next," said Tanya Mydruk, 22, an office assistant who lives in Kiev, the capital. "Sooner or later our president is going to say or do something that goes too far, and then it will start."

Move toward West

Ukraine has done little to win Russia's favor since the crisis in the Caucasus began. First, Ukraine announced that it would restrict the movements of Russia's Black Sea fleet into Sevastopol, on the Crimean peninsula. On Friday, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it was prepared to give Western countries access to its missile-warning systems.

"What happened here in the last week certainly came as a shock, not only to Georgia but to a lot of others as well," said Peter Semneby, the European Union's special representative for the South Caucasus. "A lot of people will, as a result of this, want to build a closer relationship with their Western partners as quickly as possible."

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been high for years. Yushchenko, like Saakashvili in Georgia, has sought stronger ties with the West, including membership in NATO, which Russia has said would threaten its security. In early 2006, Russia cut off natural-gas supplies to Ukraine, in a bold maneuver to weaken Yushchenko's government.

Yet despite fears of a Russian resurgence, Ukraine remains deeply tied to Russia by culture and history.

Its ethnic Russian minority, largely in the south and east of the country, is roughly 17 percent of a total population of 46 million.

Indeed, many Russian speakers watched the conflict in Georgia unfold through the prism of state-controlled Russian television channels that are broadcast here.

A growing nationalist sentiment among other segments of society, along with expanding trade and cultural ties with the West, have further complicated the political situation.

Asked whether Ukraine's future lay with Russia or the European Union, Lena Stepnevska, 24, who works at a construction company and was out for a walk in the capital Friday, opted Russia.

"I would like to believe it will be Russia, because we are fraternal nations and have to support each other," she said.

NATO membership

Though he supports membership in both NATO and the European Union, Anatoliy Grytsenko, the head of the national-security and defense committee in parliament and a former defense minister, said that Russia could not be ignored.

"Russia will not disappear tomorrow, as well as in a century or two," he said. "We will always wake up and it will be there, not Canada."

The Baltic states, meanwhile, are also gravely concerned about what a newly dominant Russia could mean for them, even though they became members of NATO in the 1990s and therefore have more protection.

"In the public, there's a certain anxiety," said the Estonian president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves. "Given our history, we understand why people feel anxious."

Estonia has been at the forefront of states giving aid to Georgia. The country has not only provided humanitarian assistance, but also sent Internet security specialists to Georgia and agreed to host Georgian Web sites that had been attacked.

Georgian officials suggested Moscow was behind the attacks, which the Russian government denied.

As much as there is fear in the region, there is also anger that more could have been done by the West to rein in Russia.

In an interview with a Polish newspaper Saturday, Lech Kaczynski, Poland's president, criticized the European Union as being too soft on Moscow.