Legal analysis sets stage for Democratic showdown over Michigan, Florida delegates

An analysis by lawyers for the Democratic Party says party rules call for Michigan and Florida to lose at least half their delegate strength at the party's convention in August, an outcome that could close off Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's last opportunity to cut significantly into Sen. Barack Obama's lead in delegates.

The legal analysis, sent late Tuesday to the party's rules committee, is expected to guide a meeting this weekend where the panel will try to settle one of the most contentious issues remaining in the Democratic presidential race: what to do with the delegates from Florida and Michigan, which violated party rules by moving up their primaries before Feb. 5.

The Democratic National Committee said Wednesday, however, that the lawyers were not recommending that solution, and their memo did not outline how to divide any delegates between Clinton and Obama.

Senior Clinton aides also disputed the lawyers' memo.

Clinton wants the full delegations from Michigan and Florida to be seated, aides said, and wants a share of delegates to match her percentage of the popular vote. But Obama campaign manager David Plouffe denounced the idea as unfair and unreasonable, because it would leave Obama without any pledged delegates from Michigan, where he was not on the ballot.

"We're getting very close to the finish line," Plouffe said, adding that if the panel raises the magic number, "we'll have to go get more superdelegates. At some point we're the nominee."

Obama has a total of 1,981 delegates, 45 short of the nomination; Clinton has 1,780. The Democratic nominating battle has only three primaries left, and all take place over the next week, in Puerto Rico on Sunday and in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday.

Delegate lead

The lawyers' analysis said that as punishment for the primaries being held early, party rules allowed the states nothing more than that their delegations be cut in half, or that the full delegations be seated with each delegate getting only half a vote.

If Clinton were awarded half the delegates she won in the two states, and if Obama received none from Michigan, she would cut his overall delegate lead from about 200 to 150, and Obama would be about 50 delegates further away from the finish line.

Of the 30-member rules panel, 13 have endorsed Clinton, eight have backed Obama, and the rest are undeclared.

"I believe there's a general feeling among the committee members that there needs to be some sort of resolution to this," said member Alice Germond, who has not endorsed either candidate. "Perhaps a 50 percent sanction, or some other accommodation. I'm feeling very hopeful there will be a way to make sure Florida and Michigan are included."

The Clinton campaign long has counted her lopsided wins in Florida and Michigan as part of her vote total. If the committee recognizes those contests, it would help validate her claim to lead in the popular vote — a key talking point as she and Obama woo undeclared superdelegates.

Roughly 600,000 Democrats voted in Michigan, and 1.7 million in Florida.

"We clearly believe there remains a path to the nomination and Sen. Clinton is pursuing it," said her communications director, Howard Wolfson.

As the fiercely contested, sometimes bitter contest between Clinton and Obama nears the end, the strong undercurrent of anger among many Clinton supporters could hamstring Obama's attempt to unify the party if he secures the nomination.

Her supporters resent repeated calls in past weeks by prominent Democrats for Clinton to drop out. And they believe party officials have been dismissive of Clinton's claims about winning Michigan and Florida outright and too willing to embrace Obama as the presumptive nominee.

Clinton's campaign underscored her push for the two states Wednesday, sending a letter, memo and polling data to the superdelegates, Democratic officeholders and party officials, arguing that neither candidate will have secured the nomination when the last primaries are held June 3.

In her letter, she argued she would be a stronger candidate than Obama against Republican Sen. John McCain in the fall, because:

• She leads in polls in swing states;

• She has support from regions and demographics the Democrats need to win the White House;

• She is ahead of McCain in Gallup national tracking polls while Obama is behind him;

• She is better positioned to win in the Electoral College, mainly because she leads McCain in polls in Ohio and Florida.

Planned protests

The rules committee is to meet Saturday in Washington.

Clinton supporters plan protests outside the meeting.

Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said the Obama camp had advised against rallies, despite calls on the Internet for counter-protests.

Clinton's campaign wouldn't say whether it would appeal the decision if all of the delegates are not restored. The party's credentials committee, which meets before the August convention, could restore all the delegates if the rules panel does not.

Information from The Dallas Morning News, McClatchy newspapers and The Boston Globe

is included in this report.