Forecasters predict busy hurricane season

WASHINGTON — There is a 65 percent chance of a busier-than-average hurricane season this year, with two to five major hurricanes developing in the Atlantic, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday.

NOAA predicted 12 to 16 named storms this season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. It said six to nine storms would develop to hurricane strength and at least two would reach Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which measures wind speed and strength. A storm that reaches 111 mph is considered a Category 3 storm. Category 5 storms have winds of more than 155 mph.

NOAA predicted busier-than-average hurricane seasons in 2006 and 2007, yet the storms those years had little impact on the United States.

"The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity," NOAA's administrator, Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, said Thursday. "It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land."

Atlantic hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell said the predictions of active hurricane seasons are based on a continuation of a weather pattern that began in 1995 that resulted in warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Atlantic.

Bell and others will release updated predictions Aug. 7.

The early forecast is similar to what William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University presented last week. Their predictions also called for an above-average season, which they think will bring 15 named storms that grow into eight hurricanes.