2 still standing in never-ending story

WASHINGTON — It seems almost laughable to think that one of the bigger worries at the beginning of the Democratic presidential race was that it would end too soon.

Now it is like watching two punch-drunk fighters in a slow-motion montage of the glancing blows, the same frames again and again, both wobbly but still standing.

Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton claimed as a split decision before the winner of the latter was declared, make only one thing clear: The race goes on, with no tidy end in sight.

But Sen. Barack Obama emerged with a clear advantage. His crushing victory in North Carolina, the bigger delegate prize, increases his lead, and the narrow race in Indiana will help defuse the argument that he can't win the votes of working-class whites. But by holding on in hopes of a victory in Indiana, Clinton did well enough to credibly rebut any calls for her to cede the race quickly.

So it is becoming increasingly clear that the party's superdelegates — elected officials and party insiders — will be the ones who decide the nominee.

The main question is how soon they do it.

Obama's double-digit victory in North Carolina and strong showing in Indiana could well accelerate the process of superdelegates turning his way.

Clinton will have to continue to make the case that Obama has fallen short among lower-income white males, voters who have sustained her candidacy of late.

Clinton has been the mother of her own reinvention, transforming herself into a fist-pumping populist who uses corporate executives, oil companies and health-care companies as the ready foils who are draining the pocketbooks of her new best friends, the durable Regular Joes. It was a nimble pivot for a candidate who began the race as the favorite of the party's better-heeled donor class.

How potent an appeal?

The superdelegates will be weighing how potent this appeal is, and whether Clinton reasonably could be expected to hold on to those voters in a fall campaign against the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.

Indeed, as the uncommitted superdelegates view the race, they will be examining which candidate has the best chance of maintaining his or her base, and which can win over more of the other Democrat's constituency.

Obama's core support has been fairly clear and consistent. He has won the votes of the educated and financially better off and has been sustained by the overwhelming support of black voters. He also has attracted the votes of hundreds of thousands of new, young voters, along with independents.

Clinton has put together a coalition that largely has consisted of middle-age and older women voters and white male voters in rural areas.

Obama's campaign continues to make its case based on math. Clinton's is based on momentum that seems born in part of her sheer resilience.

But some party leaders think neither candidate is doing enough to break out of the pattern. "They are parallel-parking into the nomination," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill. "Ronald Reagan grabbed the microphone at the debate in New Hampshire in 1980. He grabbed the nomination."

If Obama were to end the primary season, as appears likely — winning a majority of states, popular votes and pledged delegates, though short of enough to secure the nomination — and it was given to Clinton by the superdelegates, it is difficult to see how Clinton would overcome a backlash from supporters who would think his historic candidacy was wrongly denied.

That would certainly be true among African-American voters but might also be true among new and young voters.

Obama is likely to be able to hold his core support, although he also could lose some independent voters to McCain. His challenge would be to win over older women and working-class white men. Particularly with Clinton's help, he probably could win over most of those women voters, but the men might gravitate to McCain.

For her part, Clinton undoubtedly would hold on to her votes among women, and perhaps add to that total among moderate Republican-leaning voters in suburban areas. But her challenge would be to maintain the votes of rural males drawn to McCain's compelling life story of military service and his time as a prisoner of war.

In many cases where Clinton has won states, women have made up about 60 percent of the primary electorate. Women are expected to make up only about 52 percent in the general election.

So far, superdelegates are breaking for Obama. Even with the controversy over Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, he has made small but undeniable net gains.

Some party insiders think that is a marker of Obama's strength among superdelegates and a sign that many of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are yearning for a rationale to come out for him and end the most contested Democratic primary of the past 50 years.