Obama's big win in North Carolina, strong showing in Indiana hurt Clinton

Barack Obama overwhelmingly won North Carolina's primary Tuesday, and Hillary Rodham Clinton pulled out a surprisingly close victory in Indiana, triggering speculation that Clinton's candidacy is staggering and perhaps near its end.

On a night when Clinton hoped for a sweep, Obama beat her decisively in North Carolina. But the big Clinton stumble was in Indiana, where she had counted on a strong win. Instead, she barely beat Obama.

The New York senator abruptly canceled her morning talk-show appearances and had no public appearances planned today. She was expected to meet with superdelegates in Washington, D.C.

Obama celebrated his North Carolina victory by sounding like an eventual nominee.

"Tonight," Obama said, "many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided — that Senator Clinton's supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support her. Well, I'm here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it."

By convincingly winning the night's bigger prize, Obama stretched his delegate and vote leads. That served up a resounding rebuttal to Clinton's claim of momentum since her big victory in Pennsylvania two weeks ago.

Still, with only a half-dozen primaries left, he can't clinch without help from party elders.

There are more undeclared superdelegates than delegates at stake in the six remaining contests.

"There are so few delegates left now," said Joe Andrew, a superdelegate and former Democratic National Committee chairman who backs Obama. "Superdelegates are going to realize that there's going to be very little new information here, and they'll start making their choice. ... I think there's going to be a lot of pressure to unify the party."

Don Fowler, another former DNC chair who backs Clinton, agreed that Tuesday's results make it harder for her to catch Obama. Her team should evaluate the results in the "clear morning of dawn," he said.

"He's ahead, and this was the last big batch of delegates where she could have caught up and made a lot of progress," Fowler said.

For Clinton, viability may hinge on whether the party lifts sanctions against Florida and Michigan for holding early primaries. She has stepped up demands that those delegates be counted.

Obama has just endured the roughest patch of his campaign, shaking off persistent questions about his former pastor's inflammatory views and the Illinois senator's gaffe about "bitter" small-town residents. He showed Tuesday that he can shake off adversity, and he clearly framed his victory speech to signal that he views presumptive Republican nominee John McCain as his main rival now.

At a campaign rally in Indianapolis, Clinton didn't sound like a candidate who was ready to concede, though.

Even before it became clear that she would withstand a late charge by Obama in Indiana, she tweaked her rival for calling the Hoosier State a "tiebreaker."

"Tonight, we've come from behind. We've broken the tie, and thanks to you it's full speed on to the White House," Clinton told supporters, cheering as if her campaign had sustained no setback.

If the split decision left the race in flux, it did cement one thing: the image of a party divided along racial and class lines.

Exit polls showed Clinton with a firm grip on working-class whites — a key swing bloc in states Democrats need in the fall — while black voters and wealthier and better-educated voters of all ethnicities overwhelmingly support Obama. More partisans than ever on each side told pollsters that they'd rather vote for McCain, or stay home, than vote for the other Democrat.

"I do think the end is in sight," said David Bositis, who studies the black electorate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, predicting that the eventual nominee will be able to restore the traditional voting coalition between blacks and working-class whites. He also predicted that, once the final contests are held, superdelegates will fall in behind the candidate with more states, votes and delegates. "Obama will be recognized as the legitimate nominee."

Party leaders confessed some anxiety. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Tuesday that he's toyed with calling in the 70 or so undeclared House members to force a discussion on what's best for the party and "try to bring some clarity to the race."

The contests Tuesday were by far the biggest left on the calendar: 115 delegates at stake in North Carolina, 72 in Indiana. According to The Associated Press, Obama started the day ahead by 137 delegates, needing 280 more to clinch. Clinton needed 417.

West Virginia votes next Tuesday, Oregon and Kentucky a week later. The biggest prize left is Puerto Rico on June 1. Montana and South Dakota get the final word on June 3. Combined, that's 217 delegates — too few to shift the outcome.

"They're small states," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, adding that superdelegates will have to move quickly.

"Just about everybody realizes that it's a disaster for the Democrats if they go into the convention without a clear nominee," he said, predicting that senior Democrats will unleash serious pressure soon for them to declare an allegiance.

Compiled from McClatchy Newspapers, The Dallas Morning News and the Chicago Tribune