Ripples from Tibet unrest rock Taiwan campaign

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Violent unrest in Tibet has created shock waves in another volatile region on China's periphery, shaking up the presidential election in Taiwan and sapping support for the candidate Beijing hoped would win handily.

The suppression of Tibet protests by Chinese security forces, as well as missteps by the Nationalist Party, which Beijing favors, have nearly erased what had seemed like an insuperable lead for Ma Ying-jeou, the Harvard-educated lawyer who has been the front-runner in the race.

Concern that China's crackdown could herald a tougher line on outlying regions that Beijing claims as sovereign territory, including Taiwan, has become the most contested campaign issue ahead of Saturday's election.

Even if Ma wins, the election may give him a weaker mandate for his goal of pursuing closer economic ties and reduced diplomatic tensions with China.

A loss by Ma, which campaign analysts say is unlikely but possible, would be a major setback for China's leaders.

They have cultivated the Nationalists in recent years to undermine Taiwan's current pro-independence president, Chen Shui-bian, and reduce chances that his Democratic Progressive Party will hold the presidency after Chen's mandatory retirement.

Both the Nationalists and the Democratic Progressive Party promise to reduce tensions between Taiwan and China. But China has been wary of the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, who inherits a volatile coalition that includes many native Taiwanese who favor outright independence from China.

Hsieh and his party, with help from Chen's ministers, have moved swiftly to turn Tibet into a central campaign issue. They contend that Tibet's fate is an example of Taiwan's future if it does not stand up to Beijing.

With politicians from both parties concluding that the Tibet issue is hurting the Nationalists, Ma has focused on damage control.

To the surprise of many even in his own party, he warned this week that Taiwan might boycott the Olympics if the Chinese crackdown in Tibet turned more draconian and if conditions there deteriorated further.

Surveys show Ma's lead has narrowed because of Tibet and because of an embarrassing incident in which four Nationalist lawmakers were caught roaming through the DPP headquarters, politicians and political analysts said.