Pakistan's ruling party shrinking

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A wave of defections from Pakistan's ruling party ahead of parliamentary elections is compounding the woes of Pervez Musharraf at a time of rampant Islamic militancy, soaring food prices and anger over the U.S.-backed president's maneuvering to prolong his eight years in power.

While there are no reliable opinion polls, most analysts expect the party of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to win the most seats in the Feb. 18 vote, profiting from a sympathy vote over her Dec. 27 death. A party led by another ex-premier, Nawaz Sharif, is predicted to do well in cities.

Investigators from Scotland Yard have concluded that Bhutto died after hitting her head as she was tossed by the force of a suicide blast, not from an assassin's bullet, officials who have been briefed on the inquiry said Thursday.

The findings support the Pakistani government's explanation of Bhutto's death, an account that had been greeted with disbelief by her supporters, other Pakistanis and medical experts.

Also Thursday, the Pakistani government announced the arrest of two more suspects in connection with the assassination plot, but gave few other details.

Bhutto's party held solemn ceremonies Thursday to mark the 40th day since her death, an anniversary that fell earlier this week. More than 10,000 people gathered in Bhutto's ancestral village in southern Sindh province for prayers at the mausoleum where she was buried beside her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was executed by a military dictator in 1979.

Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who took over leadership of her Pakistan People's Party in accordance with her wishes, delivered an emotional address promising to carry on his slain wife's legacy.

"If I am martyred before completing the mission of Benazir Bhutto, then I should also be buried here," he said.

Zardari is widely mistrusted by Pakistanis because of corruption charges stemming from Bhutto's two terms in office in the 1990s. It is not yet known whether he will be the party's candidate for prime minister if it performs strongly enough in Feb. 18 elections to seek the post.

The pro-Musharraf party, Pakistan Muslim League-Q, is banking on victory in rural areas of Punjab, the largest province, which accounts for 183 of 342 National Assembly seats. But 13 National Assembly and 18 provincial assembly candidates have left the PML-Q, according to figures compiled from officials in the three main parties. They include two ministers in the outgoing Cabinet.

"I cannot go in my constituency to ask for votes in the name of the last Musharraf government. I have seen that Musharraf and his associates have lost confidence among the public," said Mazhar Qureshi, a lawmaker for the Punjab city of Sargodha who has defected to Sharif's party.

The PML-Q defends its record and says it has promoted economic development. It also says lawmakers flitting between parties is customary in Pakistan's politics.

"It is a democratic process. People keep on changing parties. We have over 200 candidates all over Pakistan. If a few go to another party, it is not a big deal. It is not a defection in our ranks," said Kamil Ali Agha, the PML-Q's spokesman for Punjab.

Musharraf's presidency isn't at stake in this election — he secured a new five-year term as president in a controversial parliamentary vote in October. But he could be impeached for purging the judiciary in November if opposition parties muster a two-thirds majority in the new parliament.

Information from The New York Times is included in this report.