Florida vital for GOP hopefuls

POLK CITY, Fla. — The Republican presidential contest entered a new phase Sunday as the campaigns descended on Florida for the first primary in which all the candidates are participating full-force, using as their stage a state famous for divisive election battles.

The Jan. 29 contest in Florida will be the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, who have provided Sen. John McCain with his margins of victory in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. A victory, strategists agreed, would stamp the Arizona Republican as the front-runner, and give him a clear advantage heading toward Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

McCain, after shutting down his operation here during his campaign's funding crisis in the fall, opened six offices in Florida on Sunday, and aides said he would begin advertising today. McCain plans a series of bus trips across the state, starting this morning in central Florida.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has won Nevada's caucuses and the Michigan primary in the past week, sees the state as a potential breakthrough for his once-battered candidacy and is pouring more of his personal fortune into the state in an effort to deny McCain a victory.

He is returning to the airwaves Wednesday; his commercials will include advertisements on Spanish-language television. Romney's aides said Sunday he would spend every day in Florida from now and until primary day.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, after a loss to McCain in South Carolina, looks to Florida as perhaps a last opportunity to show that his Iowa caucus victory at the start of the nominating season was not a fluke. A second consecutive Southern loss would be especially costly for the underfunded Huckabee.

But what makes Florida most different from the other contests is the presence of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as a full-fledged participant. The onetime national front-runner has finished far back in the Republican pack this year. But Giuliani has been parked in Florida for several weeks and has made the primary the critical test for his candidacy.

"All the candidates are playing there, and it really is going to be the last opportunity for national attention for a single victory," said Alex Castellanos, a senior adviser to Romney.

Huckabee could also be helped if Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee who sought support from social conservatives, decides to drop out after his weak showing Saturday in South Carolina. Aides said Sunday no decision had been made.

Romney has ordered up about $1 million in TV commercials, and an adviser said more might be bought depending on the state of the race. McCain's campaign has promised to counter with a seven-figure buy of his own. The Giuliani campaign expects to be competitive with McCain on television but not with Romney. Huckabee's hand-to-mouth campaign will struggle to stay abreast of the others.

Florida offers a large and complex battleground.

Geographically, the state is a series of mini-nations. Giuliani hopes to capitalize on expatriate New Yorkers who now live in South Florida. Huckabee will look to the Florida Panhandle and its southern complexion for votes of religious and social conservatives, but McCain sees significant potential support there as well because of the concentration of military veterans.

The main battleground may be the corridor between Tampa-St. Petersburg and Orlando, which all candidates will ply in the next nine days.

Florida will award 57 delegates on a winner-take-all basis next week, the most of any state to date. The Republican National Committee penalized the state because officials moved up the date of the primary, cutting its delegate slate in half. But by the time of the national convention this summer, it is possible that all 114 delegates will be awarded to the winner.

Recent polls have shown McCain with a slender lead over Giuliani, followed closely by Romney and Huckabee. But the campaigns expect to reassess the state of play over the next few days as the effects of South Carolina and, to a lesser extent, Nevada are felt in the Sunshine State.

McCain advisers see a two-person race against Romney developing in Florida. They believe Giuliani will begin to fade as he has in other states and nationally. But they know the stronger Giuliani's support, the more difficult it will be for McCain to win the state because the two draw from similar pools of voters.

Also

Campaigning for Mike Huckabee, actor Chuck Norris said Sunday that Sen. John McCain is too old to handle the pressures of being president. "I didn't pick John to support because I'm just afraid that the vice president would wind up taking over his job in that four-year presidency," said Norris, hosting a fundraiser for Huckabee at his sprawling East Texas estate.