U.S. may boost covert actions inside Pakistan

WASHINGTON — President Bush's senior national-security advisers are debating whether to expand the authority of the CIA and the military to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The debate is in response to intelligence reports that al-Qaida and the Taliban are intensifying efforts to destabilize the Pakistani government, according to several senior administration officials.

Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and a number of President Bush's top national-security advisers met at the White House on Friday to discuss the proposal, part of a broad reassessment of American strategy after the Dec. 27 assassination of Pakistan's opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

Several participants in the meeting argued that the threat to President Pervez Musharraf's government is so grave Musharraf and Pakistan's new military leadership are likely to give the United States more latitude, said officials who declined to speak on the record because of the delicate nature of discussions.

The options under discussion are unclear and classified. Officials said no decision had been made, but the options likely would involve the CIA working with the military's Special Operations forces.

The Bush administration has not formally presented any new options to Musharraf, who gave up his military role last month, or to his successor as the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. The White House thinks Kayani will be more sympathetic to the American position than Musharraf. Kayani was an aide to Bhutto early in his career and later led the Pakistani intelligence service.

But from the White House to the Pentagon, officials see an opportunity in the changing power structure for Americans to advocate for expanded authority in the nuclear-armed country.

"After years of focusing on Afghanistan, we think the extremists now see a chance for the big prize — creating chaos in Pakistan itself," one senior official said.

The administration largely has stayed out of the tribal areas, in part for fear that exposure of American-led operations there would embarrass the Musharraf government and further empower his critics, who say the Pakistani leader is too close to Washington.

Even now, according to officials, some in the State Department argue that American-led military operations on the Pakistani side of the border with Afghanistan could result in a tremendous backlash. That would be particularly true, they said, if Americans were captured or killed in the territory.

In part, the White House discussions may be driven by a desire for another effort to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. CIA operatives and Special Operations forces have limited authority to conduct counterterrorism missions in Pakistan based on intelligence about the whereabouts of those two men or other members of the terrorist organization hiding in or near the tribal areas. The two men have eluded the Bush administration for more than six years.

The CIA has launched missiles from Predator aircraft in the tribal areas several times, with varying degrees of success. Intelligence officials said they believed an airstrike in January 2006 narrowly missed killing Zawahiri in Damadola, a Pakistani village. But that was apparently the last evidence American officials had about whereabouts of their chief targets.

New options for expanded covert operations include loosening the reins of the CIA to strike selected targets in Pakistan, in some cases using intelligence provided by Pakistani sources, officials said.

Most counterterrorism operations in Pakistan have to be conducted by the CIA. In Afghanistan, where military operations are under way, including with NATO forces, the military can take the lead. If the CIA were given broader authority, it could call for help from the military or deputize some Special Operations forces to act under authority of the agency.

The U.S. has about 50 soldiers in Pakistan. Any expanded operations using CIA operatives or Special Operations forces, such as Navy Seals, would be small and tailored to specific missions, military officials said.

Critics said more direct American military action would be ineffective, anger the Pakistani Army and boost support for militants. "I'm not arguing that you leave al-Qaida and the Taliban unmolested, but I'd be very, very cautious about approaches that could play into hands of enemies and be counterproductive," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University.

American diplomats in South Asia also have issued strong warnings against expanded direct American action, officials said.

Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading Pakistani military and political analyst, said raids by American troops would spark a powerful popular backlash against Musharraf and the United States. In the wake of American invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, many Pakistanis suspect the United States is trying to dominate Pakistan as well, he said. He said such raids would be seen as a vote of no confidence in the Pakistani military in general, including Kayani.

The meeting Friday, which was not publicly announced, included Stephen Hadley, Bush's national-security adviser; Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and top intelligence officials.

Although some officials and experts have criticized Musharraf and questioned his ability to take on extremists, Bush has remained steadfast in his support. It is unlikely any new measures, including direct American military action inside Pakistan, would proceed without Musharraf's consent.

The Pakistan government has identified a militant leader with links to al-Qaida named Baitullah Mehsud, who holds sway in tribal areas near the Afghanistan border, as the chief suspect behind the attack on Bhutto. American officials are not certain about Mehsud's complicity but said the threat he and other militants posed was a new focus — even though he is not a member of al-Qaida and is a Pashtun. They said he is considered an "al-Qaida associate."

In an interview with foreign journalists Thursday, Musharraf warned of the risk any counterterrorism forces — American or Pakistani — faced in confronting Mehsud in his native tribal areas. "He is in South Waziristan agency, and, let me tell you, getting him in that place means battling against thousands of people, hundreds of people who are his followers, the Mehsud tribe, if you get to him, and it will mean collateral damage," Musharraf said.

The next few weeks before parliamentary elections, which were originally scheduled for Tuesday, are seen as critical because of threats by extremists to disrupt the vote. But it seemed unlikely any additional American effort would be approved and put in place in that time frame.

The Pakistanis are years away from fielding an effective counterinsurgency force, and some senior American officials have voiced concerns the United States may have to take direct action against militants in the largely ungoverned tribal areas.

American officials said the crisis caused by Bhutto's assassination had not diminished Pakistani counterterrorism operations, and there were no signs Musharraf had pulled out any of the 100,000 Pakistani forces in the tribal areas to help control urban unrest.