Oprah's oomph: Will it boost Obama?

DES MOINES, Iowa — Conventional wisdom says celebrity endorsements don't matter. But Dr. Phil and Rachael Ray might disagree.

Oprah Winfrey, who has helped launch national careers and best-selling novels, begins the first of five weekend campaign rallies for Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama today. Hundreds of media outlets are onboard, and thousands of tickets have been snapped up quicker than you can say "Hannah Montana." Talk-show diva and magazine queen Winfrey could persuade voters to take a second look at the Illinois senator.

Or ... not.

Less than a month before caucuses meet and votes are cast, Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are in a dead heat in Iowa, and Clinton is about 10 points ahead in New Hampshire polls. If Clinton wins both states, many observers think she will be the nominee.

"If she loses in Iowa, she's got real trouble. If Obama loses in Iowa, it's over, it's done," said Andrew Smith, a University of New Hampshire political-science professor.

The Obama campaign hopes the "O factor" can sell the candidate the way it does books or products featured on her show, or the way it brought superstardom — and talk shows — to such folks as Phil McGraw, a Texas psychologist, and Food Network personality Rachael Ray.

"The only other universally adored person coming to Iowa this December is Santa," said Tommy Vietor, Obama's Iowa press secretary.

Winfrey never has publicly backed a political candidate before, but on behalf of her Chicago hometown senator, she is making two stops in Iowa today — in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids — before heading Sunday to South Carolina and New Hampshire with Obama and his wife. The campaign moved the biggest event to the 80,000-seat University of South Carolina football stadium after running out of the 18,000 tickets originally available.

Can the queen of TV, a billionaire who has maintained her Everywoman appeal, help crown a king?

"If you are going to have your brand — or your political campaign — paired with any celebrity, Oprah is the one celebrity you want to be paired with," said Matt Fleming, Dallas-based client manager for Davie-Brown Entertainment.

Fleming's company maintains a database designed to measure the popularity of more than 1,500 celebrities that helps clients choose spokespeople. Winfrey is at the top of the list, as she is on several such surveys.

She is at the top because she is known by 98 percent of people surveyed by Davie Brown — and by 100 percent of the women. When people are asked whether they think she is an "influence in today's world," she beats everyone else on the list.

"She is perfectly positioned to influence the two groups that will decide the Democratic winner: women and African Americans," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Clinton has done well with both groups. "But if Obama is able to split women and win African Americans, he's the nominee," Sabato said.

Few involved with politics think that any celebrity, no matter how revered, can deliver votes. But Winfrey carries a spotlight on her face and a magnet in her pocket.

About 13,000 tickets to Sunday's "Oprabama" event went in a matter of days at the Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, N.H., about as well as Justin Timberlake, Aerosmith and Neil Diamond have done at the venue.

In Des Moines, thousands flocked to Obama's small campaign office and 1,385 have signed up as volunteers to score tickets to Winfrey. The campaign declined to say how many tickets were distributed for today's events but said no one will be turned away from the unique opportunity to attract new voters.

"She does what a good TV program does for advertisers: delivers an audience. But he's got to make the pitch," said Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University.

Goldford is an expert on the Iowa caucus system, and he recognizes that Winfrey is an "awesome, queenly figure in popular American culture." But the most she does for Obama in Iowa "is get someone to take a second look," he said.

The novelty of seeing Winfrey is huge, but on the scale of a voter's decision-making, "she's a feather," Goldford said.

Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, an Obama supporter, said he would not underestimate the power of Winfrey: "Oprah has broken every stereotype and transcends every traditional, historical barrier you can think of in American business, politics, life as it relates to race, sex, image; she has shattered all of those."

It could be true that years from now, politicians will refer to the phenomenon known as the "Oprah bounce," University of Virginia professor Sabato said.

"And if Obama doesn't do well," he said, "Well, I don't think Oprah will be quite as sought-after."

Material from The Associated Press is included in this report.