For Venezuela and beyond, vote today is pivotal

CARACAS, Venezuela — Backed by a barrage of ads on government airwaves, President Hugo Chávez is betting on victory in a national referendum that would not only give him near absolute political power in Venezuela but also strengthen his hand as the most important Latin American leader in the post-Fidel Castro era.

But Chávez's proposal to amend Venezuela's Constitution to give him greater power and the right to run for president indefinitely is losing, polls show. Still, the outcome remains in doubt since Chávez has never lost an election dating to his 1998 election as president.

Both Chávez and his opponents have portrayed the vote in apocalyptic terms for Venezuela.

But the results will have repercussions far beyond this country of 27 million people.

Fallout from a victory

A victory would sharpen conflict with the U.S. and possibly imperil U.S. energy supplies. Venezuela is the fourth-biggest supplier of oil to the U.S.

A victory would also strengthen Chávez in his efforts to export his socialist ideology by spending billions of dollars to aid leftist-leaning countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.

Chávez and his supporters say they will accept today's outcome, whatever the results, which will be certified by a board dominated by his appointees. Opposition leaders have refused to make the same pledge, saying they fear that the president will resort to fraud to win, if necessary.

Most polls in recent days have shown a majority of Venezuelans rejecting the 69 proposed amendments to the constitution sought by Chávez and the Chávez-controlled Congress. But no one can be sure of today's outcome since many Chávez opponents are planning to stay home to avoid legitimizing a pro-Chávez result that they think is preordained.

Ads extolling the benefits of the proposed changes have blanketed government television and radio stations in recent days.

The ads have focused on changes that are particularly popular with voters: a reduction in the workday from eight to six hours; extending the pension system to include maids, street vendors and others in the informal economy; and giving the people more say by transferring power from local elected leaders to neighborhood councils.

The ads have downplayed or ignored the more controversial amendments that would abolish presidential term limits, would give Chávez the right to suspend some civil rights during "emergencies" and make it easier for the government to nationalize private property.

Chávez has threatened to cut off oil exports to the U.S. if it tries to meddle in today's vote.

Opponents warned

Speaking to more than 200,000 supporters on Friday, Chávez warned that his opponents at home could try to sabotage the vote with backing from Washington, D.C., through violent protests on the night of the vote.

Violence has marred the referendum campaign over the past three weeks, with one death and several dozen hurt during pro-Chávez and anti-Chávez marches.

At a time when Venezuela enjoys Latin America's fastest-growing economy — as well as the region's highest inflation rate — Chávez has emphasized sharing the benefits. For example, the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America said last year that the number of people living in extreme poverty in Venezuela had fallen to 9.9 percent from 15.9 percent.

But opponents think Chávez is not popular enough to overcome criticism of the proposed changes and is planning to steal the election, if necessary.

At least two studies carried out by Venezuelan engineers and technicians indicate that the electronic voting system employed by the referendum is vulnerable to manipulation.

Maria Mercedes Febres, a high-tech engineer and statistics specialist who is part of Esdata, which has studied the voting machines, said diverse academic investigations have shown that "invisible" software that doesn't leave a trace could sway the election tabulations.

Another study, by the Technical Follow-up Group, which audited the voting system last December, said that although the system is "robust" and "secure," tamper-proof results cannot be guaranteed.

Analysts note that foes have made this charge before but failed to provide solid evidence.

Information from The Associated Press is included in this report.