Iowa's big crops: corn and political momentum

ANKENY, Iowa — Carlita and Ron Beltz are kingmakers.

Not on their own, certainly. But their vote counts more than yours does. How many presidential candidates come to your neighborhood? They've seen several. How many campaigns call you? They've fielded dozens of requests for support this year.

You don't live in Iowa. The Beltzes do.

"You feel," Ron Beltz said, "like your vote matters."

Other states — bigger, more diverse, more like the rest of America — wonder why the Beltzes and their neighbors should have such an outsize role in choosing a president.

The overwhelming majority of Iowans, like the Beltzes, are white. At ages 68 and 70, the Beltzes fit neatly into Iowa's fifth-place ranking among states with populations past retirement age. Far more than the rest of the country, their state is invested in corn, in insurance and in holding tightly to its first-in-the-nation Jan. 3 presidential caucuses.

Few outside Iowa argue that a small Grain Belt state should always get first crack at bouncing contenders from the presidential race, or that Iowans have responded with any deeper insight than Californians or Dakotans might, given the same opportunity.

"I still can't reconcile how a couple of states can choose the next president of the United States," said Bob Dole, the former Kansas senator. He twice won Iowa as a presidential candidate, but never New Hampshire, the second state with a crack at winnowing the field. "I don't think you have to win Iowa or New Hampshire to be the nominee."

The rush to Iowa is really just an accident of history. Moved to the front of the pack in 1972 in response to a national change in delegate-selection rules for party conventions, Iowa's Democratic caucus gave George McGovern a mild boost to the nomination.

Four years later, it transformed a certain Georgia governor and peanut farmer from "Jimmy Who?" into President Carter. Ever since, candidates have found Des Moines and the state's far-flung hamlets — and enthusiasm for ethanol subsidies — irresistible. It's the state that launched John Kerry to the 2004 nomination and pitched Howard Dean into his campaign free-fall, and the one that marked the beginning of the end for Bill Bradley and Steve Forbes in 2000.

That said, Iowa's infallibility as a picker of presidents is surely documented at the Richard Gephardt Presidential Library. Whoops, he won here and still lost the nomination.

This year's warp-speed campaign schedule has renewed criticism of Iowa's me-first maneuvers and stepped up calls for a series of rotating regional primaries or other proposals that might share the wealth of early influence with other states.

Still, it hasn't erased the political rule that only three candidates from a party's caucuses survive beyond Iowa. Democrat Joseph Biden, for instance, has said that finishing fourth or worse would doom his hopes.

Polls in Iowa contrast with national surveys. Among Democrats nationally, Hillary Clinton tends to run almost 2-1 over Barack Obama, but in Iowa, Clinton, Obama and John Edwards are clumped together in a too-close-to-call scrum, with many voters still undecided.

Among Republicans nationally, Rudy Giuliani draws about double the support of Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. But with the Iowa GOP, Romney and Mike Huckabee stand well ahead of Giuliani.

"It is a complete accident that Iowa was first. It's not the system anyone would sketch out if they were going to set one up," said Peverill Squire, a political-science professor at the University of Iowa. "If anyone had to be first, I think Iowans have handled it pretty well.... Iowans have assumed that responsibility."

Dems strip Michigan

of convention delegates

Democratic leaders voted Saturday to strip Michigan of all its delegates to the national convention next year as punishment for scheduling an early presidential primary in violation of party rules.

Despite the vote, some party leaders and officials said they believed the delegates would eventually be seated at the convention.

Michigan, with 156 delegates, has scheduled a Jan. 15 primary. Democratic Party rules prohibit states other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina from holding nominating contests before Feb. 5. Florida was similarly punished in August for scheduling a Jan. 29 primary.

Michigan officials anticipated the action by the Democratic National Committee's rules panel. But Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer said before the vote that he didn't think the delegates would be lost for good. He expects the nominee will insist the state's delegates be seated at the convention.

Saturday's vote further diminishes the significance of Michigan's Democratic primary. All the major Democratic candidates have already agreed not to campaign in either Michigan or Florida because the states violated party rules.

Information from The Associated Press

is included in this report.