Envoy gauges Taiwan's risks

Taiwan's top representative in the United States is both an accomplished academic and an outspoken member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Jaushieh Joseph Wu, who took over the Washington, D.C., post in April, said he hopes to increase awareness of Taiwan, which he said many Americans confuse with Thailand. A recent public-opinion poll showed only 6 percent of Americans are very familiar with Taiwan and 33 percent are somewhat familiar.

Tensions between Taiwan and mainland China can spill over even here. At the World Cyber Games in Seattle last October, bronze medalist You-Chen Liu was showered with curses when he draped Taiwan's flag over his shoulders on stage, angering Chinese competitors who view Taiwan as a province of China. Seattle police were called to defuse the confrontation.

Wu recently discussed relations with China and the United States and a controversial referendum next year on Taiwan's effort to join the United Nations.

Q: What realistic hopes do people in Taiwan have to get U.N. membership, considering China has veto power?

A: I think the people in Taiwan do not have the illusion that we can become a member of the United Nations soon. It's not just that China has veto power in the Security Council. Also because we only have about 24 countries recognizing Taiwan, and China has more than 140 diplomatic allies. ...

The most important thing for the Taiwan people is that [they] have been the only people excluded from the United Nations. They need to make their voice heard. That is prompting the government in Taiwan to apply for U.N. membership year after year. ... If there can be more people who understand Taiwan's inspiration, the prospect can be brighter.

Q: Is this the first time the question will come up (in a referendum)?

A: For the referendum this is the first time we let the people on Taiwan express themselves. ... Whether they agree to use the name Taiwan for membership in United Nations.

Q: In a speech to the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Christensen warned against applying under the name "Taiwan," saying it could needlessly provoke major tensions. What's your response?

A: I think it's quite all right for him to make it public that Taiwan and the United States do have a difference on this issue. I think the U.S. is concerned about the reaction from the Chinese side. ... The United States might be forced to respond to that kind of challenge. The U.S. side worries since it has to take care of the Korean peninsula, the Iranian issue, the Iraqi issue. ... It does not have sufficient capability to deal with a major event in East Asia. ... We are not trying to do anything provocative to China. Since Taiwan is already a democracy, Taiwan people have the right to make their voice heard.

Q: What is the worst-case scenario?

A: I personally would say that China would not take any concrete military action against Taiwan. In our long-term dealings with mainland China, they have their lines very clearly drawn. ... If Taiwan declares formal independence and changes its formal national title or national flag ... China might use military force. ... Applying for membership in the United Nations does not mean Taiwan is changing its formal national title or national flag. ... These are all embedded in our constitution.

Q: But wouldn't the referendum make Taiwan more vulnerable?

A: We have to weigh several factors. The threat against Taiwan is not just in the military area. ... What the international community does not pay attention to is the Chinese threat against Taiwan's sovereignty in terms of international participation.

Q: With so many distractions, are you confident the U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a conflict?

A: If Taiwan does not provoke a situation across the Taiwan Strait, we have some confidence that United States will try to intervene to ward off any aggression from the Chinese side. But we cannot 100 percent count on this kind of outside support. What is necessary for Taiwan is to beef up its own defense capabilities. When Taiwan is so strong with its defense, we can foresee a situation that China will think twice ... about military action against Taiwan. That is the reason we want to push very hard on the anti-missile systems and anti-submarine capabilities.

Q: What is the status of those sales?

A: On the budget for the anti-missile systems and anti-submarine capabilities, on June 15 the Taiwan parliament passed some of the budget that would include 12 anti-submarine airplanes. On the budget for PAC-3 [Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles], it has been denied by our parliament. The PAC-2 system we have now is going to be upgraded. In addition, we have ... the beginning part of acquisitions of eight submarines. ... The United States has still not decided to sell Taiwan F-16s. We are not sure whether the United States is going to decide to sell Taiwan the F-16s before the presidential election is over. What I heard is the U.S. is concerned about cross-strait stability. ... Therefore, they are not going to make the decision at this point.

Kristi Heim: 206-464-2718 or kheim@seattletimes.com