Throng opposes Chávez's proposals

CARACAS, Venezuela — More than 100,000 people flooded the streets of the capital Thursday to oppose a referendum that would eliminate term limits for President Hugo Chávez and further the socialist leader's agenda for Venezuela.

Blowing whistles, waving placards and shouting "Not like this!" the marchers carried Venezuelan flags as they streamed along Bolivar Avenue to demonstrate their opposition to the proposed constitutional changes, which will be submitted to a vote Sunday.

Venezuelans will vote on 69 proposed changes to nation's 1999 constitution that would, among other things, eliminate presidential term limits, create forms of communal property and give greater power to the presidency.

No official crowd estimates were available, but opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez said about 160,000 protesters filled the avenue, and thousands more spilled over onto surrounding roads. The rally was among the largest by the opposition in recent years.

Chávez, who says the constitutional overhaul is necessary to give more of a voice to the people through community-based councils, plans to lead rallies in favor of the reforms today.

On Wednesday, hundreds of stone-throwing students clashed with police and the Venezuelan national guard in a protest and security forces responded with water cannons and tear gas after a Chávez supporter was shot to death, but there were no immediate reports of violence Thursday.

Chávez, first elected in 1998, already obtained total control of the National Assembly when opponents boycotted the 2005 elections, and lawmakers gave him special powers to enact some laws by decree through next June.

The government cites polls suggesting Chávez has an advantage, while the Caracas polling firm Datanalisis — in a nationwide survey this month — found 49 percent of likely voters opposed Chávez's reforms and 39 percent were in favor.

In the face of possible defeat, Chávez has denounced assassination plots and intensified his diplomatic battles to rally voters while diverting attention from some of the package's unpopular measures.

Chávez severed ties with Colombia on Wednesday to protest President Álvaro Uribe's pushing him out of a mediation role with Colombia's leftist guerrillas.

Chávez also accused CNN of promoting his murder by showing his picture with the caption "Who Killed Him?" which referred to a separate story about the death of U.S. football player Sean Taylor. Chávez also said a sniper trained a laser on him during a recent march.

"This is undoubtedly a tactic to unite supporters around him and pass everyone else off as traitors to the fatherland," said Maruja Tarre, an international-relations expert at Simón Bolívar University in Caracas.

Chávez also recently froze ties with Spain in a flap over King Juan Carlos' telling him to "shut up" at a summit meeting earlier this month.

Some suspect his effort to change the nation's time zone, so that Venezuelans will have to move their clocks back 30 minutes, also is meant to distract attention from the referendum's less-palatable parts.

Chávez took the last nationwide opposition TV station off the airwaves this year, and an opposition newspaper complained the state channel dedicates many hours to propaganda for a "yes" vote compared with a few seconds on the "No" camp.

A student movement that rose up after the TV shutdown has led an outcry against reforms that the opposition political parties, the Roman Catholic Church and human-rights groups denounce as authoritarian.

"We are winning back democracy," Freddy Guevara, a student leader wearing a red T-shirt emblazoned with "No," shouted from a podium at Thursday's rally. "There is no doubt that if everybody goes to vote, we will win."

Chávez has won three presidential elections and a 2004 recall referendum. He staved off a 2002 coup that briefly ousted him from power, and he controls all 167 seats in Congress — after the opposition boycotted an election — and 20 of the 22 state governorships.

"Sunday is going to hinge on turnout," said Mark Feierstein, vice president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Washington polling firm that has worked in Venezuela. Adding to the uncertainty is speculation that if Chávez concludes he will lose, the Chávez-controlled Supreme Court could delay the vote by agreeing to consider one of the opposition's challenges.

Even supporters are wary of the referendum.

The small Podemos political party — which has six seats in Congress and almost always has supported Chávez — refused to back the proposed changes. Even Chávez's ex-wife, Marisabel Rodriguez, joined the chorus of critics.

But Chávez remains personally popular, with the approval of more than 50 percent of the population. With oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel, Venezuela's oil-dependent economy has boomed, and Chávez is spending the resulting windfall on populist programs. Venezuelans also are snapping up imported computers, whiskey and clothing, driving imports up an astonishing 36 percent compared with a year ago, the Central Bank of Venezuela reports.

Poverty has fallen from 42.8 percent in 1999 to 33.9 percent in 2006, according to Venezuela's census bureau, although progress on unemployment has been mixed.

"The 'comandante' has done so many good things for this country," Aura Eslada, 54, a secretary who wore a red cap and a "Yes with Chavez" T-shirt, said during a march Tuesday.

"The opposition doesn't have anybody better to offer."

But amid the economic plenty, consumers complain that they cannot find eggs, sugar, milk and other basics at supermarkets. Price controls imposed by Chávez have eliminated farmers' profits and caused them to reduce production.

That's one of the signs that, even though Chávez controls nearly all the levers of political power, he has yet to gain total control over this freewheeling country.

Many expect Chávez to nationalize more private holdings, which have included U.S. firms Heinz and Verizon, and try to grab even more power.

Javier Corrales, a political-science professor and Chávez-watcher at Amherst College, said an emboldened Chávez could drive up energy prices further.

"Venezuela is going to be a big, big headache" for the U.S. if Chávez wins the referendum, Corrales said.

After meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran last week, Chávez said the falling dollar was "a sign the U.S. empire is coming down," and called on OPEC countries to use the euro instead. His comments helped push oil prices closer to $100 a barrel.

Whether relations between Venezuela and the United States improve may depend on President Bush's successor. Chávez has professed to getting along better with President Clinton than "the Texan who walks around shooting from the hip."

Compiled from The Associated Press, Reuters, McClatchy Newspapers, The Miami Herald, The Washington Post and USA Today