Front-runners? Pollsters say no

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Despite what many political experts, campaign officials and media outlets keep insisting, there's no front-runner in either the Democratic or Republican race for the White House.

Huge numbers of voters in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire remain undecided and, in many cases, unimpressed by major candidates.

"There's a lot of confusion among people right now," said Pamela Choquette, a social worker from Pittsburg, N.H. "They're undecided."

Voters are saying that, as in past years, they won't make up their minds until they cast their votes at Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses or enter the voting booth five days later in New Hampshire.

Adding to the volatility are the rules in both states: New Hampshire lets independents vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, and Iowa's Democratic caucus rules often prod participants to change to second or third choices.

Electorate's mood

As a result, Dennis Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines, summed up the mood with four words: "The races are fluid."

Wayne Lesperance, associate professor of political science at New England College in Hennicker, N.H., finds a general consensus on what will make voters finally pick a candidate.

"At the end of the day," he said, "electability will make the difference."

The discomfort and unpredictability is evident in the numbers and in the chatter in the nation's early voting states.

David Bowen, an independent voter and thus part of a huge bloc that traditionally decides New Hampshire presidential primaries at the last minute, said he has a candidate in mind. He's always liked Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, but he's not ready to commit.

Bowen, a Manchester, N.H., sports-memorabilia salesman, plans to go on the local television station's Web site, where visitors can match up issues that matter to them and see which candidate best fits their voting criteria.

"I haven't looked at all the candidates yet," Bowen said. "I like McCain as a Republican, but I want to finish the process and look at all the candidates."

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center has found huge numbers of people like Bowen, still trying to decide. Though its Nov. 14-18 survey of likely voters put former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney significantly ahead of the Republican pack, it also reported that only 14 percent of likely GOP voters said they have made up their minds.

And, it found, while 29 percent are leaning toward a candidate, 57 percent remain undecided.

The poll saw similar trends among Democrats, as only 24 percent of that party's voters have decided on a candidate, 29 percent are leaning — and 47 percent are still looking.

Iowa survey

An ABC News-Washington Post survey in Iowa taken during the same days found a similar bloc of voters uncertain about their choice.

The reasons for all this instability vary, but the surveys and voter interviews suggest several factors are in play. Among them:

• The electability factor. "Think about the top Democratic candidates," said Andrew Smith, New Hampshire poll director. "They're all about the same on the issues."

But New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's negatives worry a lot of Democrats, who see her as a potentially flawed nominee before the general-election race begins.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, on the other hand, is seen as a fresh face; in some quarters, too fresh.

• The independents. Forty-three percent of New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, meaning they can vote in either primary. They're historically unpredictable.

Eight years ago, they flocked to the GOP and gave McCain a big win over President Bush. This time, the betting is they lean to Obama.

• The Iowa caucus procedure. In the Democratic caucus, a candidate must get 15 percent of the precinct caucus or gets no delegates and is reported as receiving zero.

What that means, said David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, is probably that supporters of Sens. Chris Dodd and Joseph Biden, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, all of whom are trailing in polls, could have to make a second choice.

Surveys suggest Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards benefit most if that happens.

• Voter education. People in the two states know they have the opportunity to meet the candidates. They want to know about issues and so far see, and are unhappy with, a lot of coverage of the election as sport, full of up and down polls and who's got the best tactics.

A study last month by two journalism organizations found that in the early months of the campaign, 63 percent of campaign stories in major media outlets discussed political and tactical aspects of the campaign — and only 17 percent examined candidates' ideas or policy proposals.

• An unusual GOP race. Since 1964, Republicans have generally wound up anointing the logical candidate.

This time, though, "there's no one next in line," said Goldford, since Bush can't run again and Vice President Dick Cheney is not running.

Add to that another wild card: Bush is highly unpopular, so it's not clear whether GOP candidates should actively criticize him, not mention him or try to at least woo the small band of Republicans who still like him.