China says it won't meddle in Myanmar, but gently nudges junta to ease strife

BEIJING — China has gently urged Myanmar's military rulers to ease the strife that has seen tens of thousands take to the streets in protest, diplomats said this week, even as Beijing said publicly it would stick to a hands-off approach toward its neighbor.

China has quietly shifted gears, the diplomats said, jettisoning its noninterventionist line for behind-the-scenes diplomacy. A senior Chinese official asked junta envoys this month to reconcile with opposition democratic forces. And China arranged a low-key meeting in Beijing between Myanmar and State Department envoys to discuss the release of the leading opposition figure.

For a country that has been Myanmar's staunchest diplomatic protector, largest trading partner and a leading investor, the shift is crucial. Asian and Western diplomats in Beijing and Southeast Asia said China's influence in Myanmar is second to none and could be decisive in restraining the junta from more violent confrontations with protesters.

U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said on Wednesday that China should use its sway over Myanmar.

"We want them [China] to use their influence in whatever form they can to get the regime to change its views," Casey said.

Diplomats and experts cautioned that China's communist leaders may not be willing to push harder. Myanmar's junta has resisted Western economic sanctions and appeals from Southeast Asian neighbors and the United Nations. China has deftly filled the diplomatic and economic vacuum, eyeing Myanmar as a strategic path to the Indian Ocean, investing in its teak forests, gas and mineral fields and picking up an ally in the junta.

Myanmar has about 19 trillion cubic feet of proven natural- gas reserves, only about 0.3 percent of the world's total reserves, according to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy at the end of 2006. Although Myanmar doesn't currently export gas to China, its supply could potentially help feed a rapidly growing Chinese economy hungry for energy.

State-run China National Offshore Oil Corp. has taken a stake in a Bay of Bengal gas field in Myanmar, while China National Petroleum Corp. is reportedly looking to build a pipeline.

Beijing protected Myanmar, also known as Burma, from scrutiny and sanction in the U.N. Security Council earlier this year. This week, two officials — one from the Communist Party's international-affairs office, the other from the Foreign Ministry — said China would stay out of Myanmar's affairs.

But Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu tempered the pledge with an appeal for calm. "We hope Myanmar and its people will take proper actions to resolve the issue," Jiang said.

China's political and economic interests in Myanmar are spurring it to act, diplomats and experts said. With an Olympics in Beijing next year already bringing heightened scrutiny, Chinese leaders are likely loath to be associated with another repressive, unpopular regime.

Criticism from foreign governments and international activist groups already have caused Beijing to pare back lending to Zimbabwe and put pressure on Sudan to accept a U.N. peacekeeping force for Darfur.

Democracy campaigners in Myanmar took note of the success of the Darfur activists, who warned the games would be tarnished as the "Genocide Olympics" if Beijing did not act, said David Mathieson, Burma consultant for Human Rights Watch.

"China has made some significant concessions recently on its links to Sudan, but it hasn't gone that far on its links with Burma," said Mathieson. "If things heat up on the border, that's not going to look good for China in the lead up to the Olympics at all."

Beijing's dual approach — saying one thing in public while waging quiet diplomacy — has also characterized its policy shifts on Sudan and in persuading North Korea to join disarmament negotiations, the diplomats said.

In June, Beijing hosted two days of talks between junta envoys and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric John. The State Department and U.S. Embassy declined to disclose details. Diplomats from other Western embassies said among the topics was relaxing house arrest for Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the democratic opposition.

China has a sizable presence in Myanmar, constructing dams and laying a road that is supposed to stretch from the Chinese border across Myanmar to its shore.

China became Myanmar's No. 1 trading partner in 2005, with trade heavily lopsided in China's favor topping $1.7 billion, according to Turnell. China's Commerce Ministry says the value rose 20 percent last year and jumped nearly 40 percent in the first seven months this year.

Information from Reuters is included in this report.