Petraeus to ask for more time in Iraq

WASHINGTON — In a preview of his much-anticipated report to Congress next week, Gen. David Petraeus on Friday expressed disappointment in the lack of progress toward political reconciliation in Iraq. Also on Friday, administration officials said Petraeus wants to make another assessment in six months to allow more time for Iraqi politics to catch up with what he regards as rapidly improving security conditions.

In a letter to his troops, the top U.S. commander in Iraq emphasized that violence there had diminished in eight of the past 11 weeks. But while "many of us had hoped this summer would be a time of tangible political progress," Petraeus wrote, "... it has not worked out as we had hoped."

Petraeus' desire for another six months was seen by some U.S. officials as an effort to forestall any major changes in strategy or troop deployments until security gains solidify and produce hoped-for political progress.

For weeks, President Bush and his top advisers have pointed to Monday's and Tuesday's scheduled testimony from Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker as a turning point, but officials are now indicating they expect little change in strategy or force structure for the immediate future.

Petraeus has privately signaled he can accept token reductions in U.S. troop strength, and U.S. military officials in Iraq have begun to identify areas where they can selectively draw down as many as 5,000 troops by spring, administration officials said.

But Petraeus wants to reassess conditions again in March before making further reductions, administration officials said.

"I think Dave will highlight in his testimony that he can see a place in the future where he can begin to shift his weight from doing what he is doing now to a new phase of operations, and that new phase of operations will require fewer troops," one senior administration official said. But he added, "This is a delicate balance to be struck. If you do it too quickly, you endanger the gains you have made."

Bush's troop-increase strategy — first announced in January — was premised on the notion that increased security would provide "breathing space" for the Iraqi government to make critical advances toward national reconciliation. Whatever security gains have been achieved have not been matched on the political front, however, and congressional Democrats, along with influential Republicans, have argued that the Iraqi government is not seizing the opportunity U.S. forces have provided.

Petraeus briefed the president over the past two weeks and offered his recommendations on how to proceed in Iraq, but White House officials said they have not seen the text of the testimony he plans to deliver to Congress. They said Bush is not sure exactly what his general will say — part of an effort to push back at criticism that the administration is stage-managing Petraeus' congressionally mandated appearance.

Bush TV address coming

Although Bush has deflected political pressure to change course in Iraq by urging critics to wait for Petraeus' assessment, White House officials insist the president himself will make the final determination of what to do in Iraq. Bush must deliver his own progress report on Iraq to Congress by Sept. 15, and administration officials said Friday they expect him to address the nation before the end of next week.

With the addition of 30,000 troops in recent months, there are currently about 168,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. Most U.S. officials expect the number to begin coming down in April, but exactly how fast — and whether it can begin sooner — is the subject of a fierce guessing game in Washington.

While Petraeus would like to keep as many forces as possible in place beyond the spring, he has indicated he could accept the removal of a brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 troops, a senior U.S. official has said.

Northern Iraq and western Anbar province are considered the most promising regions for early troop drawdowns, according to military officials. Decisions in each case, officials said, would depend on other factors in addition to decreasing violence, such as the ability of Iraqi military units to take control. An Iraqi brigade currently in Mosul is considered highly capable, and the U.S. commander in northern Iraq, Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, said this summer that U.S. troop totals in that region could be halved by 2009.

But Turkey, a NATO ally, is unlikely to look favorably on a drawdown in the north until its concerns about cross-border attacks by renegade Iraqi Kurdish fighters are addressed.

The military officials said even supportive members of Congress were unlikely to be placated by any spring drawdown smaller than a brigade — 4,500 to 5,000 troops — but cautioned that most of the brigades currently in Iraq are widely dispersed, with components scattered to different areas according to need.

Controlling "fault lines"

There are many regions of Iraq — particularly Baghdad and areas to the immediate north and south — where U.S. troops are sitting on ethnic and sectarian "fault lines," one Baghdad-based officer said. Although they may be at relative peace for the moment, violence is likely to reignite if U.S. troops depart, the officer said.

Petraeus is expected to report that more time is needed for Iraqi forces to be able to control those areas, and for local populations to trust each other. Those views conflict with the conclusions of a commission of retired senior officers who presented Congress this week with an independent assessment of Iraq's security forces. It cited a growing culture of Iraqi dependency on the U.S. troop presence.

One official said Petraeus will offer "a fair amount of data" in his presentation to Congress, including charts demonstrating how violence has diminished since additional U.S. troops began establishing a presence in Baghdad neighborhoods this year.

The Washington Post staff writers Robin Wright, Ann Scott Tyson, Thomas E. Ricks and John Solomon contributed to this report.