Some say Putin won't vacate office for long

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin seems to quietly delight in stoking the fevered speculation about who will succeed him when he steps down, as he has promised to do, following presidential elections in March.

Now Moscow is suddenly chattering about a new, unnamed prospect — the loyal place-holder.

Under that scenario, which Putin recently toyed with publicly, a new leader would keep his seat warm until 2012 — or even sooner, as some have suggested, if Russia's next president was suddenly afflicted with nervous exhaustion or some other condition that forced him — or her — to resign. The Russian constitution prevents Putin only from serving more than two consecutive terms.

"Theoretically it's possible," Putin said when asked at the recent Group of Eight summit in Germany if he might run in 2012. "The constitution does not forbid it."

Just before the summit, in a meeting with foreign reporters, Putin said he was open to the idea of extending the term of the president from four to five or even seven years.

Regardless, Putin has repeatedly stressed he will remain a vital player. "My sport was judo, not light athletics," he said this year. "I have no intention of running away."

The idea of a third, but nonconsecutive, term for Putin is not new. But for Kremlin-watchers, his recent musings provided a moment for fresh prognostication.

"The option of a 'technical president' ... is becoming more and more plausible," wrote the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper. "Later he will quietly step aside, having prepared Vladimir Putin's triumphant return."

Such an outcome has its logic. The Kremlin, according to analysts here, is riven by factions that cannot agree on a successor, and the extension of Putin's rule following a short interregnum might be the only way to prevent damaging splits among his acolytes from emerging.

But Putin himself is a lesson in the dangers of banking on future loyalty.

After Putin was elected president in 2000, the tycoon Boris Berezovsky reportedly told the new president that he was a "temporary figure" and that a permanent replacement for Boris Yeltsin, Russia's first president, would be chosen in 2004.

Berezovsky was soon out in the cold. He is now in exile in London, from where he launches rhetorical broadsides at his former protégé. And Russia is seeking his extradition from Britain on a number of criminal charges.

"The laws of power suggest that any new president, unless it's a clone of Putin, will bring their own people in, and that team will be very reluctant to leave after a first term," said Yevgeny Volk, coordinator of the Heritage Foundation's Moscow office.

For months, political analysts have been studying the appearances and statements of two men widely seen as front-runners for the top job, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitri Medvedev, both first deputy prime ministers and longtime associates of Putin. Ivanov has been put in charge of the diversification and strengthening of the Russian economy, and Medvedev is responsible for improving areas such as housing and education.

Their unannounced campaigns appear to be an effort to test their popularity with the public, but more important, within the elite.

The specter of a "technical" president may be an effort by Putin to prevent Ivanov and Medvedev from getting too far ahead of themselves — at least until he is ready to bless one of them and has united his team behind his choice. Meanwhile, the uncertainty serves two related purposes — staving off lame-duck status for Putin and keeping his potential successors in line.