Humpback whales' comeback could mean reduced protection

SAN JOSE, Calif. — An ongoing count of endangered humpback whales — like the two that made a lengthy side trip into the Sacramento Delta recently — is revealing a comeback so convincing that marine scientists are pondering a controversial question: Is it time for the whales, hunted to near-extinction in the 20th century, to have less protection under the federal Endangered Species Act?

"The standard is whether they are out of the immediate risk of extinction. The answer to that is probably yes," said Jay Barlow, a marine biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But he said "there likely will be resistance" if such an effort begins.

Although most experts and advocates agree that the humpback is making impressive gains, they disagree about what that should mean for protection of one of the most iconic species in the animal kingdom.

The most recent previous count, done 15 years ago and using less rigorous methodology, estimated the humpback population at 6,000 to 10,000 whales, up from fewer than 2,000 when commercial whaling was banned in 1986, said John Calambokidis, the researcher coordinating the current study. He said that judging from annual counts along the West Coast, the population may be increasing by as much as 10 percent a year. The International Whaling Commission estimates the worldwide humpback population at around 50,000.

"The trend has definitely been upward," he said.

The humpback's range extends from Central America and Hawaii to the Washington coast and the waters near Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

Humpbacks tend to roam five to 10 miles off shore as they feed on the continental shelf , but it's only once every year or two that one tends to make it into the deepest part of Puget Sound waters south of Seattle, Calambokidis says.

In the pre-whaling days of the 1800s, the whales "were actually quite common" in Washington state's inside waters, including Puget Sound, the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Strait of Georgia. But a brief period of whaling targeting the area around Vancouver Island "did a pretty good job of wiping them out," Calambokidis says.

Sightings may be on the rise, however. "We're seeing these increases on the West Coast, with appearances in the Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca, which would make sense as the population recovers," he says.

The current research into humpback numbers is part of a study started in 2004 involving 300 researchers. The count covers the Eastern Pacific from Alaskan and Russian waters to the west coast of North America as far south as Central America and west to Hawaii and Japan.

Much of the resistance to changing the protected status of whales from endangered to threatened under the Endangered Species Act comes from wildlife advocacy groups that battle to keep the plight of endangered species on the radar of the average citizen.

Naomi Rose, a marine-mammal scientist with the Humane Society of the United States, said one argument against changing the protected status of the humpback involves public perception.

"Politically, [downlisting is] not necessarily a bad thing," she said, "but the danger is, then people might say, 'OK good, now we can start exploiting them again.' "

Rose said her organization would reserve judgment until all the research is in.

A Greenpeace scientist is more decisive. "It's dangerous to be reducing protections for whales given the wide range of threats they're facing," said John Hocevar, senior ocean specialist with the environmental group.

He said perils remain for whales, including the effects of climate change, increased shipping traffic and more contaminants in the oceans.

"All of these things are not going away," Hocevar said. "... We are going to be needing stronger protections, not reduced protections."

Calambokidis said he has mixed emotions about lowering protections for the humpback. He had the same concerns when the California gray whale was delisted in 1994; it was the only marine mammal to be taken off the endangered-species list.

"The concerns vary between being reluctant to give up any protection if they still seem vulnerable at all, and seeing that for the credibility of the Endangered Species Act, it's necessary to remove animals from the list when appropriate."

The gray-whale population has remained healthy since delisting.

Although the humpback count has created a buzz in the marine-research community, the debate over protections will not be resolved quickly.

The field research will be analyzed for a year before a final report is made. Then NOAA, which administers the marine portion of the Endangered Species Act, could recommend a change of status, or a nongovernmental group could petition for a change. The hearings and debate could drag on for five years or more.

The proposal to take another icon — the bald eagle — off the list was made in 1999 and is not likely to be final until sometime this summer.

Another fear of environmental groups is that downlisting a whale species sends the wrong message at a time when some countries are still killing whales commercially. Iceland, Russia, Norway and Japan collectively kill several thousand whales each year, despite the 1986 moratorium.

"A reduction in protection by a conservation-minded country like the United States is something that Japan would make great political points out of," Greenpeace's Hocevar said.

Staff reporter Marc Ramirez contributed to this report.