Clinton campaign memo argues against competing in Iowa Democratic caucus

NEW YORK — Hillary Rodham Clinton's deputy campaign manager wrote a memo this week urging the Democratic front-runner to bypass next year's Iowa caucuses to focus time and money on New Hampshire, South Carolina and several large states hosting primaries next Feb. 5.

The memo from Mike Henry emerged days after a Des Moines Sunday Register poll of likely caucus-goers showed Clinton trailing rivals John Edwards and Barack Obama in Iowa, which is to hold the first voting contests Jan. 14, 2008.

"I believe we need a new approach to winning the Democratic nomination," Henry wrote. "This approach involves shifting the focus away from Iowa and running a campaign that is more focused on other early primary states and winning this new national primary."

The memo was a sign of division among the New York senator's strategic advisers over the importance of Iowa among early voting states.

All the major presidential campaigns have been struggling to adapt to next year's vastly accelerated calendar, with such states as California and New York holding primaries within weeks of Iowa and the other traditional small state powerhouse, New Hampshire.

In his memo, Henry argued that winning Iowa would require a huge cash investment — as much as $15 million — that could cripple the campaign later as it moved ahead into the big states.

Even so, there was no indication Wednesday that Henry's advice would be heeded.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Clinton said she had long been committed to campaigning in Iowa.

"This memo offered the views of one person," she said. "I didn't see the memo and didn't know about the memo until it apparently fell into the hands of someone outside the campaign."

Clinton also called divisions over electoral strategy "par for the course" for any presidential effort.

"A campaign that doesn't have a difference of opinion is a campaign not well served," Clinton said. "At the end of the day, I'm the one who makes decisions about the direction of the campaign."

Clinton has a full schedule of events in western Iowa beginning this Friday and is scheduled to campaign in the state the following two weekends as well.

She has won the endorsement of former Gov. Tom Vilsack and his wife, Christie, who accompany her on virtually all of her campaign stops in the state. Vilsack sought the Democratic presidential nomination but dropped out earlier this year when he found it difficult to raise money. He remains popular with Iowa Democrats.

Polls throughout the year in Iowa have generally shown Edwards topping the Democratic field, even as Clinton has led in national polls and most other state surveys. Privately, Clinton advisers — Vilsack included — have acknowledged that she would probably not win Iowa if the election were held anytime soon.

Edwards, who fell just short of winning the state's caucuses in 2004, has campaigned extensively there this time and has held onto much of his support.

Sensing opportunity, Obama's campaign released a memo of its own Wednesday, citing polling in Iowa that suggested he would be the strongest general election candidate.

In an interview Wednesday, Vilsack said Clinton was just getting started in Iowa and he was confident she would build support.

"Every campaign has to focus on the people who want to be courted, who are not yet committed. People in Iowa have not yet had a chance to meet Senator Clinton," Vilsack said. "She converts people. She's doing a good job and I like where we are today."

Clinton's Iowa campaign is headed by veteran strategist JoDee Winterhoff and is opening 10 offices throughout the state. Winterhoff estimated Wednesday the number of people working on the campaign there to be "well north of 50."

Ever since Democrat Jimmy Carter emerged from obscurity to win the Iowa caucuses in 1976, the state and its relatively small number of caucus-goers have wielded outsized influence over both parties' presidential contests. Candidates who have dared skip the caucuses to focus efforts elsewhere have generally done so at their peril.

Clinton's husband, former President Clinton, did not compete in Iowa during his first election in 1992, primarily because one of his Democratic rivals, Sen. Tom Harkin, was from the state. Bill Clinton went on to carry Iowa in both the 1992 and 1996 general elections.

John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, revived a seemingly moribund campaign that year on the strength of winning the Iowa caucuses.

Harold Ickes, a top Clinton strategist, said the campaign had been weighing various options for dealing with the rush of nomination contests in early 2008.

"Every campaign games out different scenarios and this is one scenario," he said. "The campaign is moving in Iowa, is going to stay in Iowa, and Mrs. Clinton is very dedicated to winning the state."

Henry did not return a telephone message left at his office. He is the former campaign manager of Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, credited with helping the Democrat win exurban counties that had been leaning Republican in that state.