Military eyes threat from climate change

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military increasingly is focused on a potential national-security threat: climate change.

The U.S. Army War College last month funded a two-day conference titled "The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change." And 11 retired senior generals on Monday will release a report saying global warming "presents significant national-security challenges to the United States," which it must address or face serious consequences.

The 63-page report — to be released a day before the U.N. Security Council holds its first briefing on climate change — lays out a detailed case for how global warming could destabilize vulnerable states in Africa and Asia and drive a flood of migrants to richer countries. It focuses on how climate change "can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world," in part by causing water and food shortages.

The report's authors, along with other national-security experts, have confirmed that the military has begun studying possible effects of global warming with new intensity.

"It's only in the last six months that climate change itself has surfaced as a term that's commonly recognized as having security implications," said Kent Butts, a professor of political-military strategy at the War College's Center for Strategic Leadership.

The Army's former chief of staff, Gen. Gordon Sullivan, one of the authors, noted he had been "a little bit of a skeptic" when the study group began meeting in September. But, after being briefed by top climate scientists and observing changes in his native New England, Sullivan said he now was convinced that global warming presents a grave challenge to the country's military preparedness.

"The trends are not good, and if I just sat around in my former life as a soldier, if I just waited around for someone to walk in and say, 'This is with 100 percent certainty,' I'd be waiting forever," he said.

Part of the sense of urgency, the generals said in interviews, stems from the fact that changing climatic conditions will make it harder for weak nation-states to address citizens' basic needs.

The study notes that conflicts in regions such as Darfur and Somalia stemmed initially from a lack of resources, something that will worsen with global warming.

Climate change is different from traditional military threats, report author Vice Adm. Richard Truly said.

"It's going to happen to every country and every person in the whole world at the same time," he said.