Bush speech comes at presidency's nadir

WASHINGTON — President Bush will deliver his first State of the Union address to a Democratic-controlled Congress tonight, at what may be the lowest point in his six-year presidency.

But the president sees an opportunity, on domestic policy at least, to revive his fortunes on several fronts, including health care, immigration and energy.

That would take a willingness by the president to work for compromises on Capitol Hill, even at the risk of displeasing the GOP's conservative base. And it would take a Democratic leadership willing to do the same with its base.

In 2001, Bush did reach out to Democrats in the months immediately after his election, securing passage of the No Child Left Behind education law that remains a hallmark of his domestic record. White House officials are suggesting that, despite increasing partisanship since then, Bush is again open to compromise.

"When you have a Democratic Congress that came in two weeks ago saying, 'We want to get things done' — we've got some offers that [are] going to be pretty good for them," White House spokesman Tony Snow said Monday.

Each side is expected to use the speech to send signals to the other — the president with his words, and the Democrats with their applause, or lack thereof.

But some analysts think it's too late for Bush to regain the confidence of Democrats or much of the nation.

"People don't have confidence in him or his trustworthiness, and both of those undermine his ability to bounce back," said George C. Edwards III, a presidential scholar at Texas A&M University.

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Bush's overall approval rating is 33 percent, matching the lowest it has been in Post-ABC polls since he took office in 2001. Sixty-five percent say they disapprove. Equally telling is the finding that 51 percent of Americans now strongly disapprove of his performance in office, the worst rating of his presidency. Just 17 percent strongly approve of the way he is handling his job.

Only two presidents have had lower approval ratings on the eve of a State of the Union speech. Richard Nixon was at 26 percent in 1974, seven months before he resigned in disgrace because of the Watergate scandal. Harry Truman was at 23 percent in January 1952, driven down by public disapproval of the Korean War and his firing of Gen. Douglas MacArthur.

"The president is in an exceedingly weak position," said Thomas E. Mann, who studies White House-congressional relations at the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank.

Some lawmakers are concerned that the shift in political fortunes — and years of pent-up Democratic frustration with GOP hardball tactics — could lead to a less-than-decorous atmosphere tonight for the speech in the House chamber.

"I hope we won't act like children," said Senate Assistant Minority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss.

Democrats, however strongly they are feeling their oats at the moment, said they did not intend to be disruptive.

"We've always been respectful of the president, and I would assume that would continue," said Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. "This is really his night to give us his view, and I think people generally make their views known through applause and non-applause."

White House aides said that instead of the traditional laundry list of subjects — in which the president gives at least a brief plug for the favored programs of every Cabinet department — Bush plans to focus on a few key issues.

In past years, Bush devoted roughly half his speech to national security and the "war on terror." This year the speech comes just 10 days after he delivered a prime-time address to the nation on the subject, and aides said he did not intend to repeat himself.

At a time of increasing tension between the Bush administration and Iran, foreign governments are likely to listen carefully to what the president says about that country and Iraq's other neighbor, Syria.

But it is on domestic policy that Bush has the most opportunity to find common ground with Democrats, if he chooses to take it.

He will propose a health-care plan intended to expand coverage by offering new tax breaks for basic medical insurance while imposing new taxes on the most generous plans. Generous plans would be treated as a taxable fringe benefit.

The president also is hoping that Democrats will help him revive a guest-worker program that stalled last year in the then-Republican-led Congress. Many of Bush's Republican allies were more interested in cracking down on illegal immigration than in establishing a new program for immigrant workers. Democrats may be more receptive.

In the end, it may not be proposals that determine the success or failure of the showcase address. Instead, it may simply be whether Bush avoids losing additional ground with the public and Congress.

"At six years, people think they know him," presidential historian Edwards said. "The idea that there is some magic phrasing or some magic policy that will give him a big boost and people will regain confidence in him — it's not going to happen."

Additional information from The Washington Post and McClatchy Newspapers.