Darfur death toll subject of debate

KHARTOUM, Sudan — As violence in Darfur escalates, a debate is growing over how many people have died in what officials call the world's worst humanitarian crisis. A U.N. agency's survey cites at least 200,000 deaths, but other studies say the death toll could be closer to 400,000 or more.

Sudan's government, however, contends the toll is inflated and fewer people have died.

The dispute occurs in part because, ever since fighting began in early 2003, humanitarian workers have had limited and perilous access to Darfur.

Overall, the U.N. says 4 million people in Darfur are in desperate need of aid — nearly two-thirds of the estimated Darfur population of 6.5 million. An estimated 2.5 million live in refugee camps in Darfur and neighboring Chad, while others inhabit remote villages, the U.N. says.

The last official, independent mortality survey for Darfur was published in March 2005. Based on data collected in refugee camps in Darfur, the World Health Organization estimated that 10,000 of these refugees died each month between the end of 2003 and October 2004. By March 2005, when the survey was released, the total number had risen to 200,000 deaths, the WHO later estimated.

The figures have not been thoroughly updated since. Yet fighting has worsened, and that has led some researchers and human-rights advocates to contend that the estimate is too low. They say the violence has continued at the same or greater level each month since March 2005, meaning total deaths could be as high as 400,000.

Government attacks in the past month have chased at least 60,000 from their homes, said Ramesh Rajasingham, the head of the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Sudan, and dozens of villages have been razed.

U.N. officials still usually use the 200,000 number. The Associated Press also uses the figure of at least 200,000 dead, based on the WHO survey.

For its part, Sudan's government in Khartoum says death tolls have been vastly inflated.

This week, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir said only 9,000 had died. "I challenge anybody to prove differently," he said.

A survey by the Washington-based and State Department-funded Center for International Justice, which conducted interviews with Darfur refugees in Chad in August 2004 found 61 percent of those interviewed reported witnessing the killing of a family member. The survey combined that percentage with the number of refugees in Chad to reach a total of 200,000 dead.

Because the WHO study did not survey refugees in Chad and did not count many violent deaths, the report argues the 200,000 estimated dead among refugee families in Chad should be added to the WHO's toll of 200,000 dead inside Darfur camps to reach a total of 400,000 deaths.

But not all researchers accept the methodology, calling the extrapolation method faulty.