U.S. seeks allies to limit Iran

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is trying to bring Persian Gulf monarchies and other Sunni Muslim Arab rulers into a new security alliance to contain Shiite Muslim Iran's growing influence and stem any spillover of violence from Iraq, according to senior U.S. officials, diplomats and private analysts.

But the effort's success could hinge in part on whether President Bush heeds growing calls in the region and at home to reactivate long-dormant U.S. mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Baker-Hamilton commission on Iraq, due to deliver its report in early December, is expected to recommend reviving U.S. peacemaking efforts as part of a regional approach to resolving the violence in Iraq.

Stabilizing Iraq will be the primary topic when Bush meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki during a two-day summit beginning today in Jordan. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to meet Thursday with representatives of eight countries — Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — who are alarmed by the Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence in Iraq and Iran's growing influence.

Iran, which is thought to be seeking nuclear weapons, has supported Shiite militias in neighboring Iraq, is the patron of the radical militia Hezbollah in Lebanon and has supported militant Sunni Palestinian groups, including Hamas.

"Overall, if I'm looking at this from a real geopolitical sense, it really is about preventing one hegemonic power from being able to dominate the region," said a senior U.S. official, referring to Iran. He requested anonymity.

If Iraq's Iranian-backed Shiite militias continue to kill Iraqi Sunnis and drive them from their homes, however, some neighboring Sunnis could be drawn into the fight on the side of Iraq's Sunni insurgents.

U.S. officials and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a coalition of Arab Persian Gulf states, have discussed stepped-up cooperation on maritime security, missile defense, air defense and counterterrorism. Assistant Secretary of State John Hillen has traveled to the Persian Gulf region a half-dozen times.

In a signal to Iran, more than 24 countries — including the United States and three Persian Gulf nations — began naval exercises in late October 20 miles outside Iran's territorial waters. Any disruption of oil supplies through the gulf would send prices skyrocketing.

The United States is pressing autocratic Sunni leaders such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah to lean on Iraq's Sunnis to end their insurgency and reach a deal to coexist with the country's majority Shiites.

The Arab nations appear unlikely to cooperate extensively unless Bush moves to try to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however. Regard for the United States is low in Arab nations, where people view the United States as an uncritical ally of Israel.

Rice was given that message bluntly two months ago when she met in Cairo, Egypt, with counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt and Jordan.

"Clearly the Sunni states need some cover for their own populations," said analyst Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. "The absence of that is giving the Iranians the opportunity to turn on the heat on Israel and bring the attention of the Arab street to the unresolved issue of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute."

Rice also will travel to the West Bank to meet Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas.

The recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and retired Indiana Democratic U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton, are expected to reinforce that message.

In recent days, Israel and the Palestinians announced a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced Israel's willingness to withdraw from settlements in the West Bank.

Bush has been less personally involved in the Arab-Israeli dispute than any U.S. president since Israel's creation in 1948.

The United States has refused to talk to the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority unless it abandons terrorism and recognizes Israel's right to exist.

"I think that people are rightly skeptical about how serious the Bush administration is about the issue," said retired U.S. diplomat Edward Abington, who previously advised the Palestinian Authority.