Voters revise political landscape

WASHINGTON — The rolling realignment of U.S. politics accelerated Tuesday, as Democrats strengthened their hold over the Northeast and opened new beachheads in the Midwest and Mountain West that could prove critical to their hopes of winning the White House two years from now.

These and other political changes, illuminated by the 2006 election like a late-night flash of lightning, could signal a new stage in the competition between the two major parties.

For Democrats, the watchword Tuesday was growth: The party expanded its reach with key groups of swing voters as it made notable advancements on previously GOP-leaning terrain.

The results sent Republicans a message of retrenchment: The Democratic surge reversed President Bush's gains in the 2004 vote among women and Hispanic voters and saw the GOP virtually obliterated across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

In all, the election dealt a powerful blow to Republican hopes that Bush's re-election in 2004 had established a narrow but lasting political majority for the party. Instead, the United States appears to have reverted back toward a 50-50 political nation, with Democrats, if anything, claiming momentum.

"Heading into the 2008 election, neither party holds a significant advantage," said political strategist Simon Rosenberg, head of centrist Democratic group known as NDN, in a memo Wednesday. "It is a 'jump ball' for control in 2008 ... "

The most emphatic Democratic gains came in the 11 Eastern states stretching from Maryland to Maine. Many of these states once were a foundation of the GOP, but they have drifted toward the Democrats over the past 50 years as Republicans have become more closely identified with a Southern-flavored social conservatism and small-government ideology.

That trend, mixed with antipathy toward Bush and the Iraq war, produced explosive gains for Democrats in the East on Tuesday.

Pending final results in two tight contests, Democrats gained as many as 12 House seats in the region, ousted GOP senators in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island and seized Republican-held governorships in Massachusetts, New York and Maryland.

When the next Congress convenes, Democrats could hold 68 of the region's 92 House seats. They also will control 17 of the region's 22 Senate seats (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who were elected as independents, plan to caucus with the party).

Two other Democratic breakthroughs turned heads. One was their success in smaller, economically struggling Midwestern communities where Bush ran well in 2000 and 2004. Democrats beat three GOP House members from Indiana in districts with those characteristics, and Democrat Sherrod Brown showed strength in such places in routing Republican Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio.

The other important Democratic breakthrough came in the Mountain West. Democrats captured one GOP-held House seat in Colorado and two in Arizona. In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester defeated Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, pending a final vote count. Democratic governors won landslide re-elections in New Mexico, Arizona and Wyoming. Democrat Bill Ritter scored a landslide victory in the race for Colorado's governor's office, which a Republican had held.

After Tuesday's results, Republicans "should be terrified" about holding Colorado in the 2008 presidential race, said Walt Klein, a veteran GOP consultant in the state.

Still, Democrats excited by their gains may be overlooking signs of continued resistance in the region. They came close, but failed to defeat, targeted GOP House incumbents in Nevada and Colorado, lost the Nevada governor's race, failed in a bid against Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and saw Colorado voters reject a ballot initiative to authorize civil unions for homosexuals while approving a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

One reason Democrats generally ran well across the Southwest was the GOP's poor showing among Hispanics.

In 2004, exit polls showed Bush carrying about 40 percent of Hispanic voters. But with many Republicans pushing a hard-line message on immigration, National Election Pool exit polls showed GOP congressional candidates winning only 29 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Republican support also suffered among independent voters, after running about even with them in 2002 and 2004. Democrats won independents, often by commanding margins, in each of the 11 most competitive Senate races except in Rhode Island and New Jersey, where the GOP nominated moderate candidates.

Women voters, who moved toward Bush in 2004, turned away from the GOP. Women preferred the Democratic candidates in the 11 top Senate races, often by huge margins.

One big reason for that success: Exit polls found women considerably less supportive of the Iraq war than men. Similarly, exit polls found that independents were nearly as unhappy about the war as Democrats.

Those findings suggest that, without progress in stabilizing Iraq, Republicans may find it difficult to regain the support they lost Tuesday. The White House understands that the clock is ticking more loudly.

"The president believes in this war and everything that is at stake in this war, and so it's very difficult, even impossible, to envision that he would just give up on it," said a senior GOP strategist who requested anonymity when discussing administration policy.

"On the other hand, the White House and Republicans are aware this is an unpopular war, and there is certainly pressure to turn things around. It's no secret that public patience is being taxed."

Los Angeles Times reporter Molly Hennessy-Fiske contributed to this report.