'06 midterms hold lessons for '08 hopefuls

WASHINGTON — Tuesday marked the end of Election 2006 — and the beginning of Election 2008.

Democrats romped away this year, but New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who polls say is the party's front-runner for president, learned that her positions on Iraq might be an electoral handicap, analysts said. And, they said, while the Republicans were set back severely, the GOP's leading presidential contender, Sen. John McCain, of Arizona, was handed another reason to think his reputation as a maverick has advantages.

Clinton voted to allow the president to go to war in Iraq and long defended that view.

Although she turned into an opponent of the president's war policy last year, the party's liberal wing — which played a key role in inciting the Democratic wave that swept through Congress this year — has not forgiven her for the delay.

McCain, on the other hand, was a much-sought-after GOP surrogate on the campaign trail because he was widely accepted as independent of his party and President Bush.

How McCain, Clinton and other potential presidential aspirants were perceived during the campaign has been important because the midterm elections always were about more than electing people to Congress and governors mansions. They also were opportunities for wannabe presidents to gain allies across the country to help them with their quests for the White House.

During the two-year midterm election cycle, McCain attended 346 events and raised more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates. Clinton, who stayed close to home to campaign for her re-election, raised more than $21 million for Democratic candidates and headlined 131 events in 51 cities.

Clinton clobbered her Republican challenger, John Spencer, by garnering 66.5 percent of the vote Tuesday. She won with 55 percent in 2000.

She also showed she could attract relatively conservative voters who largely shunned her the last time, the kind of voters she would need to win a general election for president.

She won 61 percent of the vote in rural upstate New York, compared with the 48 percent she received in the region six years ago. She lured the votes of 64 percent of the people who identified themselves as independent this year, up from 46 percent in 2000, according to exit polls.

However, Democratic pollster and analyst Mark Mellman said the midterm results served as a reminder to Clinton that she must be careful to highlight her opposition to the war to avoid alienating a sizable number of Democrats.

"She's the 800-pound gorilla in this race, and the Iraq issue could cost her 100 pounds, maybe," he said. But he added, "700 pounds is still a pretty big gorilla."

Clinton also received high-profile help gathering political backers across the country: her husband. "[Former] President Clinton was extraordinarily successful and racked up a large number of chits from Democrats who were awfully grateful to him," Mellman said. Bill Clinton made about 100 campaign stops in more than 31 states.

McCain was able to mine good news from the rubble of Republican losses. One secret to the Democrats' success was their ability to win over independents and moderates, exit polls showed. McCain long has been seen as a champion of independents; that trait proved to be a liability in the 2000 GOP presidential primaries, but it might become a benefit.

"After a year in which independents determined the outcome of the election, maybe Republicans will be more interested in nominating a candidate in 2008 that plays well with moderates and independents," said Jon McHenry, of the Republican polling firm Ayers McHenry & Associates.

On the other hand, the virulently anti-Washington mood of voters this year might create a long-term problem for capital veterans such as McCain.

Seeking the White House in 2008 "will be tough sledding for someone with a Washington address," predicted Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., a non-Washingtonian who might seek the nomination.

Plenty of politicians used the midterms to test the waters. Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., traveled to 39 states. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson raised $13 million for fellow Democratic governors. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., kept in close touch with lots of Democratic candidates, especially in what he jokingly called "random places" such as Iowa and New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation caucus and primary states in 2008.