Ortega is likely winner in Nicaragua; leftist's victory would be a blow to Bush

MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Daniel Ortega, the rebel leader driven from power 16 years ago by a U.S.-backed war and the missteps of his own Sandinista movement, was cruising toward victory and an unlikely political resurrection Monday in Nicaragua's presidential vote.

The result was a blow to the Bush administration, which worked actively to discourage Nicaraguans from voting for Ortega, 60, a former Marxist who served as president from 1985-90. He now is allied with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, the bęte noire of Latin American and U.S. conservatives.

With 62 percent of the ballots counted Monday, Ortega was outpolling conservative challenger Eduardo Montealegre by 39 percent to 31 percent. Two separate "quick counts" that took scientific samples of the vote found Ortega would win a clear and "irrefutable" first-round triumph.

Ortega's apparent victory was celebrated Monday evening in the impoverished neighborhoods of this and other Nicaraguan cities, where the Sandinista National Liberation Front's core supporters have remained loyal through years of revolution, counter-revolution and electoral defeats.

Cars cruised down Managua's main streets with horns honking and passengers waving the black and red flag of the Sandinista Front.

"I feel like I did in 1979, because this is a new revolution," said Violeta Mena, 44, remembering the day when the Sandinistas marched into Nicaragua after defeating the army of dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle. "This is not an armed revolution, it's a revolution for social justice."

Ortega met Monday evening with former President Carter, who served as an election observer. But Ortega did not declare victory, saying "no one wins until the electoral council says so."

Though his followers still call him "el comandante," Ortega won by reinventing himself as a moderate and a dealmaker in the long tradition of Latin American populist politics.

Over the past two years, Ortega has fashioned a series of cunning alliances that have left his foes on both ends of the spectrum weak and divided.

Ortega reconciled with former enemies, including the hierarchy of the local Roman Catholic Church and former commanders of the right-wing contra army who fought to overthrow him in the 1980s. And Sandinista legislators used their influence to change the rules of the electoral contest to make a first-round victory easier.

Having pulled off an unlikely political second act, Ortega "has an opportunity to heal his country and to heal the disparity between his country and the United States," Carter said.

Carter and other international and Nicaraguan observers said the voting Sunday had proceeded normally, despite claims by conservative candidates and the dissident Sandinista Renovation Movement of irregularities.

U.S. officials, who have strongly urged Nicaraguans not to vote for Ortega and threatened economic consequences, responded cautiously Monday, saying they would withhold comment to await final results.

"The Nicaraguan electorate has responsibility for choosing its leaders," a U.S. State Department statement said. "We will work with those leaders based on their commitment to actions in support of Nicaragua's democratic future."

Ortega said Nicaragua would continue to "give security to the private sector, protect foreign and national investors ... and work to eradicate poverty in the country."

Ortega's opponents were not prepared to concede defeat.

"This is a battle to transform Nicaragua," Montealegre, a Harvard-educated banker, said Monday. "It won't be over until the last vote is counted."

Information from The Associated Press is included in this report.