Math doesn't add up for GOP in gubernatorial races

Democrats long expected they would take back the governor's office in New York this fall. And they had high hopes for Massachusetts, even though Republicans have held on there for 15 years.

But Arkansas, Republican-held for the past decade? Colorado, which chose Republicans in the past three presidential elections? Ohio, which hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1986?

If the polls are accurate and a Democratic wave hits Tuesday, it seems poised to reach beyond Congress all the way to governor's mansions. With roughly a dozen seats in play, Democrats are well ahead or in a close contest in all of them. Voters will elect 36 governors nationwide, although more than half aren't competitive.

Democrats confidently predict they will win a majority of governorships, reversing the GOP edge since 1994. Republicans, after years of celebrating their numerical advantage — now 28-22 — are fighting to limit their losses.

"The math is troublesome, and the overall environment is challenging for Republicans," said Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who visited at least five states last week to boost GOP gubernatorial hopefuls. "But we've got a number of really strong candidates who are fighting an uphill battle."

Governor's races generally don't receive as much attention as the contests for control of the House and Senate.

Yet a state's top politician has a much more immediate impact on a person's day-to-day life than congressional representatives, affecting schools, roads, even the companies that set up shop in a city or town.

Governors also craft domestic policy on health care, welfare, education and more. Governors, for instance, led the charge for welfare reform in the mid-1990s.

Political parties see the national implications, with strategists arguing that an effective governor can help organize and promote the state party, which in turn can help deliver votes for Congress and the presidency. And governorships can cultivate future national leaders, with four of the past five presidents having first served as governor.

"Winning a majority of governorships is just as significant as us winning the House and Senate," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, head of the Democratic Governors Association. "That will help us in winning back the White House in '08."

As this year's races have unfolded, Democrats have had to broaden their strategy as more states have become competitive, including some previously seen as solidly Republican, such as Nevada and Florida.

"The good news is we're up in so many races. The bad news is we're up in so many races, in terms of the resources," said Penny Lee, DGA executive director. The group has spent more than $11 million, a record, though still far behind their GOP counterparts' $20 million, on top of candidates' spending.

Recent polls show Democrats well ahead in New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Arkansas and Colorado, with close contests in Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Maryland and Nevada.

That means Democrats are within reach of seven of the eight open seats where a Republican is leaving office — with only Idaho looking solidly Republican. And they're in the running to knock out two sitting Republican governors in Minnesota and Maryland. The only open Democratic seat, in Iowa, is too close to predict.

Republicans hoped to take Democrat-held seats in Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin. Democrats have pulled slightly ahead in all three in recent weeks, though all remain close. The best news for the GOP is in California and Rhode Island, where Republican governors who at one time looked vulnerable have pulled ahead.

Phil Musser of the Republican Governors Association maintained that each race will be decided by issues in that state but didn't dispute the trend emerging nationwide.

"I don't think we're seeing a wave per se. But to say there isn't some impact of the national environment on governors elections is probably disingenuous," he said. "We are running in the head wind here. That's a fact of life."