Democrats have shot at Senate, polls find

WASHINGTON — Democrats are within striking distance of taking control of the Senate on Election Day, a series of new polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed today.

Democratic Senate candidates are tied or have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate.

Democratic candidates have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats — with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.

And they are in position to hold their three most vulnerable seats — with a slight edge in New Jersey and leading in Maryland and Washington.

This in-depth, state-by-state look at the political landscape of 10 Senate battleground states five weeks before the Nov. 7 election is based on a series of polls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. Seven were conducted for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC, and three for other newspapers were made available to McClatchy. Each state poll was by phone of 625 likely voters in the final week of September. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"These numbers look very encouraging for the Democrats to take control of the Senate," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.

Democrats are faring well and Republicans are on the defensive for several reasons: dissatisfaction with President Bush, disapproval of the war in Iraq, anti-incumbent sentiment and some anxiety about the economy.

Aggravating those factors is the fact that several Republican strategies don't appear to be working well at this point:

• Voters who don't like Bush are taking it out on the Republican candidates, regardless of whether Republicans run from or with the president.

• Voters in all but one state rank Iraq as their top concern, above terrorism, despite Bush's campaign to link the unpopular war to the more broadly supported effort against terrorism.

• A majority of voters think the war in Iraq is going badly. Those who think that support Democrats by solid margins.

• The fact that Democrats haven't spelled out clear alternatives on Iraq — a main complaint from Republicans — doesn't seem to matter.

"The Democrats haven't said anything that makes people say, 'Yeah, that's the way to go.' People just don't like what the Republicans are doing," Coker said.

Despite all that, Democrats still face challenges in seizing control of the Senate.

Most notably, they're still locked in several close races that could be decided by which party does a better job of turning out its core supporters — something the Republicans are very good at.

Here are snapshots of the races, first for Republican-held Senate seats:

• Missouri: Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill, the state auditor, were tied 43-43 percent.

• Pennsylvania: Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 49-40 percent.

• Rhode Island: Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse had a slight edge over incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, 42-41 percent.

• Virginia: Incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen and Democratic challenger James Webb are tied at 43 percent each.

Here are snapshots of the Democrat-held Senate seats:

• Maryland: Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin led Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by 47-41 percent in the race for a Democratic seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes.

• New Jersey: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez had a slight statistical edge over Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator, 44-41 percent.

• Washington: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell led Republican Mike McGavick by 50-40 percent. Other candidates had 1 percent, and 9 percent were undecided.

Here are poll results in three other Senate races:

• Montana: Democrat Jon Tester, the state Senate president, led incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 47-40 percent. The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted for the Lee Newspapers.

• Ohio: Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent and incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent. The poll was conducted for the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

• Tennessee: Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, had 42 percent. The poll was conducted for the Chattanooga Times Free Press and the Memphis Commercial Appeal.