Bin Laden dead? Officials doubt it

PARIS — A leaked French intelligence memo reporting that Osama bin Laden had died of illness last month caused a flurry of speculation Saturday, but skeptical French, U.S. and Arab officials said they had no information confirming the report.

French President Jacques Chirac said the intelligence report "has by no means been confirmed, not whatsoever." A French security official cautioned that the memo was based on uncorroborated intelligence from a single source.

"We are not confirming whatever has been said in this report because we consider it a source among other sources," said the French security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Our services, like others around the world, don't use just one source for reaching such a conclusion, they need multiple sources. We don't think this is a reliable report at this stage."

The latest rumblings about the elusive al-Qaida leader came from an unlikely source: a small regional newspaper. L'Est Republicain, based in the city of Nancy, published an article Saturday along with a copy of a confidential Sept. 21 memo from France's foreign intelligence agency, known by the initials DGSE.

The memo informed Chiraq and the defense minister that Saudi intelligence had "become convinced" that bin Laden was dead, according to the newspaper.

"The data gathered by the Saudis indicates that the chief of al-Qaida would have been a victim, while in Pakistan on Aug. 23, 2006, of a very strong attack of typhoid," the intelligence memo stated, according to the newspaper. "His geographic isolation, caused by his permanent fugitive status, made any medical care impossible. On Sept. 4, the Saudi security services obtained the first intelligence about his death."

Typhoid is a bacterial disease that can be spread in food or drink handled by a carrier or through contaminated sewage.

Saudi Arabia's Interior Ministry offered no details. "I've heard the reports, but I have no information at all. I have no idea," spokesman Mansour al-Turki said.

As in Paris and Riyadh, the response in Washington, D.C., was skeptical and cautious.

"We don't have any confirmation of that report," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

Two U.S. intelligence officials and a knowledgeable senior official of an Arab country also tracking bin Laden said much the same thing.

The officials were slightly less skeptical about the possibility that bin Laden is gravely ill. He has been rumored for years to be suffering from a debilitating kidney disease, perhaps requiring dialysis.

"We've been down this road many times before, and there is no reason to think that this one has any more credence than the others," the U.S. intelligence official said.

Bin Laden, born in Saudi Arabia, is believed to be hiding in the remote areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where he has used the rugged terrain and sympathetic locals to evade capture. U.S. and Pakistani officials have said recently that they had not received a credible lead on his whereabouts in more than two years.

While 2006 was a record year for al-Qaida communiques — with more than three times the number of videos from any previous year — none of the tapes showed bin Laden. Several audiotapes purportedly by bin Laden have aired, and the CIA has confirmed their authenticity, but some scholars who closely monitor bin Laden suspect they're old recordings spliced to sound as if they're related to current events.

"I'm not convinced any of the tapes we heard in 2006 are new," said Bruce Lawrence, a Duke University professor and author of the book, "Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden."

Lawrence, regarded as one of the world's leading al-Qaida archivists, added that "there's something staged and strange" about the wording and style of some recently released tapes.

Bin Laden's last video appearance was in October 2004, when the Al-Jazeera satellite TV channel aired footage of him appealing directly to Americans just before the presidential election.

Spy agencies have not detected any so-called "chatter" among al-Qaida operatives or other traditional indicators of a momentous event such as bin Laden's death, officials said.

Despite reservations about its contents, French officials did not question the authenticity of the memo itself. Chirac said he had ordered an internal investigation of the leak.

French officials said DGSE has good sources in the Arab world, and the Saudis know a lot about bin Laden.

If the Saudi government had received hard information about bin Laden's death or imminent death, it would have gone immediately to a U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism center in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, officials said. From there, it would have been sent to Washington, D.C., within hours, the officials said, adding that no such referrals have taken place.

Even if the reports are true, U.S. and foreign analysts say, bin Laden's death is unlikely to dent the global jihadist movement he helped create. Al-Qaida has metastasized into a loose confederation of groups inspired — but not directed — by him and his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Zawahiri has emerged as the most visible al-Qaida leader in the past two years, but even he hasn't been directing attacks such as those in Bali, Madrid and London, according to two senior U.S. counterterrorism officials.

Compiled from the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, McClatchy Newspapers and The Associated Press.