Corps not promising levees would hold

NEW ORLEANS — Despite aggressive efforts to repair the New Orleans levee system, it isn't clear whether it would withstand a hurricane with heavy storm surge this year, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday.

Lt. Gen. Carl Strock said the agency was tracking Tropical Storm Ernesto, churning in the Caribbean with 60 mph winds Saturday. The storm could be near hurricane strength by the time it reaches Jamaica today, the National Hurricane Center said.

Strock said he was confident the corps had done all it could to repair and reinforce 220 miles of levee walls, but he said many variables would determine whether the levees could withstand a major hurricane striking near New Orleans, as Katrina did Aug. 29, 2005.

"To pinpoint it to one thing and say 'yes' or 'no' is very difficult," Strock said.

Much would depend on where the hurricane made landfall, wind speed, rainfall and other factors, he said. The biggest concern would be water so high that it could cascade over levee walls, weakening them to the point of breaching.

Gov. Kathleen Blanco said state officials were keeping an eye on Ernesto.

"It's critical we make the right call for the right reason," she said, cautioning that officials want to ward off the chance of unnecessary evacuations.

Mandatory evacuation in parishes south of New Orleans would kick in when the storm was 50 hours from the coast, New Orleans Homeland Security chief Terry Ebbert said. New Orleans would begin mandatory evacuation at the 40-hour mark.

The city has buses and trains under contract to evacuate people without the means to leave, he said.

Col. Richard Wagenaar, who oversees the New Orleans district of the corps, said the flood-control system, which was breached in three places after Katrina, was equal to or better than it was when Katrina struck, but he said he and his staff already had begun making preparations for Ernesto.

Wagenaar said he would have to weigh all risks in any decision to close floodgates. When closed, it takes longer to pump rainwater out of low-lying areas, creating risks of rain flooding.