Iraqis challenge rosy assessments

TIKRIT, Iraq — As security conditions continue to deteriorate in Iraq, many Iraqi politicians are challenging optimistic forecasts of the Iraqi and U.S. governments, with some worrying that generally upbeat views are preventing the creation of effective strategies against the escalating violence.

Their worst fear, one that some U.S. soldiers share, is that top officials don't fully understand what's happening. Those concerns seem to be supported by statistics that show Iraq's violence has increased steadily during the past three years.

Most U.S. military assessments have been positive, an exception coming this month during congressional testimony. Gen. John Abizaid, commander of U.S. military operations in the Middle East, said, "The sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it. ... If not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war."

Trumpeting agreement

However, the Bush administration and military officials as recently as June were trumpeting an Iraqi agreement to form a government, the death of terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and a series of raids and arrests.

"The American policy has failed both in terms of politics and security, but the big problem is that they will not confess or admit that," said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of Parliament. "They are telling the American public that the situation in Iraq will be improved, they want to encourage positive public opinion [in the U.S.], but the Iraqi citizens are seeing something different. They know the real situation."

Othman contends that top U.S. officials spend most of their time in the heavily guarded Green Zone in Baghdad and don't know what's happening in the neighborhoods and provinces beyond.

Iraq developments

Baghdad bombings

21 people were killed in Baghdad on Wednesday, including eight who died after an explosion near day laborers waiting for work. Two car bombs exploded, killing 13 people.

Tribal revolt

In Basra, 340 miles southeast of Baghdad, gunmen from the Bani Assad tribe attacked the provincial governor's office because they believed officials were behind the killing of a tribal leader Tuesday.

Gov. Mohammed al-Waeli said one policeman was killed. Seven attackers were arrested, he added.

Mosul unrest

In Mosul, 225 miles northwest of the capital, armed clashes erupted between police and assailants in three neighborhoods on the mostly Sunni Arab western side of the Tigris River left five dead.

Roadside bomb

A roadside bomb exploded near an Iraqi army patrol north of Hillah, killing three soldiers. Hillah is a mostly Shiite city about 60 miles south of Baghdad.

Hezbollah tribute

An Iraqi insurgent group Wednesday released a video showing a Katyusha rocket purportedly fired at the U.S.-controlled Green Zone in a gesture of solidarity with Shiite Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.

The Associated Press

Shiite Muslim Parliament member Jalaladin al Saghir had a similar view.

"All the American policies have failed because the American analysis of the situation is wrong; it is not related to reality," Saghir said.

Some U.S. soldiers in Iraq reluctantly agree.

"As an intelligence officer ... I have had the chance to move around Baghdad on mounted and dismounted patrols and see the city and violence from the ground," wrote one U.S. military officer in Iraq.

"I think that the greatest problem that we deal with [besides the insurgents and militia] is that our leadership has no real comprehension of the ground truth. I wish that I could offer a solution, but I can't. When I have briefed General Officers, I have given them my perspective and assessment of the situation. Many have been surprised at what I have to say, but I suspect that in the end nothing will or has changed."

McClatchy Newspapers is withholding the officer's name to protect him from possible retaliation by his superiors.

U.S. officials and Iraqi officials appointed by them continue to orchestrate ceremonies, news conferences and speeches that suggest that things are improving.

In Tikrit last week, Gen. George Casey walked across the marble floor of a palace, smiling and shaking hands. It was a good day for Iraq, he said.

Casey's comments in Tikrit came as the Iraqi army's 4th Division was taking the lead in securing three provinces, and senior Iraqi and U.S. officials had gathered for a celebration marked by dancing soldiers and passionate speeches.

The commander of the 4th Division, Lt. Gen. Abdul Aziz Abdel-Rahman, told the crowd that Iraq was heading toward safety and democracy.

In the week that followed, at least 110 Iraqis died in a series of bombings and shootings and at least eight U.S. soldiers and Marines were killed. The Iraqi death toll probably was much higher, since many Iraqis are killed by death squads and their bodies are undiscovered, buried or dumped in rivers.

3,500 killed in July

Deputy Health Minister Adel Muhsin said about 3,500 Iraqis died last month in sectarian or political violence. He said it was the highest monthly death toll for civilians since the war started in March 2003.

The ministry last week said about 1,500 violent deaths were reported in July in the Baghdad area alone. U.S. commanders have responded by rushing nearly 12,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops to the capital, prompting more optimism from the U.S. military.

"All across Baghdad, we're seeing progress," U.S. spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said Wednesday.

While various military operations at times have improved security in parts of the country, the bloodshed has mounted with each U.S.-declared step of progress, according to figures that the Brookings Institution research center compiled from news and government reports.

• When L. Paul Bremer, then the top U.S. representative in Iraq, appointed an Iraqi Governing Council in July 2003, insurgent attacks averaged 16 daily.

• When Saddam Hussein was captured that December, the average was 19.

• When Bremer handed over sovereignty in June 2004, it was 45 attacks daily.

• When Iraq held its elections for a transitional government in January 2005, it was 61.

• When Iraqis voted last December for a permanent government, it was 75.

• When U.S. forces killed al-Zarqawi in June, it was 90.

Casey acknowledged in an interview with ABC News last week that things were "very difficult right now." But the remainder of his response made no reference to the expanding violence.

"Now, what's gone on over the last two years?" he said. "There's been great progress over the last two years, and you've been here enough where you've seen the situation ebb and flow just like it is now. We're ebbing right now. And we're going to come out of it just like we have in the other places."

Top U.S. military officials often point to the Iraqi security forces as the way forward. In June 2004, there was one Iraqi army battalion. Today, there are 10 divisions.

But recent interviews with U.S. soldiers suggest that some Iraqi security forces are contributing to the problem.

Gunmen last month marauded through a Sunni Muslim neighborhood in western Baghdad, dragging people from their homes and cars and shooting them. Iraqi police said more than 40 were killed.

To reach the neighborhood, the gunmen had to drive through Iraqi police and army checkpoints, said U.S. 1st Lt. Brian Johnson of the 4th Infantry Division, who leads a platoon on the western edge of Baghdad.

"Those gunmen drove up in five or six trucks full of [Shiite] Mahdi militiamen with AK-47 bandoleers across their chests and they drove through IP [Iraqi police] and IA [Iraqi army] checkpoints," said Johnson, 24.

"The IAs and the IPs are in the Mahdi militia's pocket. ... An IP will come off the checkpoint and a Mahdi militia guy will put on his uniform, man the checkpoint and start pulling people from their cars."

Political view

Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East project director at the nonprofit International Crisis Group, said there'd been too much emphasis on scoring political points in the U.S.

"One of the key problems all along of the U.S. approach to nation-building in Iraq has been that it was ... not [guided] by the situation on the ground. This is how certain benchmarks were set, and then celebrated when achieved, without any regard for developments taking place that undermined these very successes," Hiltermann said. "This was always more about generating an American success story at home than about doing the right thing in Iraq."

Additional information from The Associated Press and Seattle Times archives