Plot signals al-Qaida may be up to old tricks

WASHINGTON — Strong indications of an al-Qaida link to the airline bomb plot uncovered in London on Thursday suggest that the terrorist network has survived and adapted despite blows to its leadership and structure over the past five years, U.S. intelligence officials said.

The possible evidence of an al-Qaida footprint, officials said, includes the trips made by several of the alleged plotters to Pakistan, where remaining al-Qaida leaders are believed to be, and the sophistication and scope of plans. The plot parallels one developed by al-Qaida a decade ago.

Neither U.S. nor British officials were prepared Thursday to proclaim definitive evidence of direct involvement by Osama bin Laden or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. They acknowledged that their conclusions are to some extent inferential and based on bin Laden's repeated warnings of another major assault, the organization's affinity for targeting airliners and a belief that no other terrorist group has the capability to plan such an audacious undertaking.

Elements of the unfolding plot reflect their assessment of a newly evolved al-Qaida strategy that depends — unlike the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — on the Internet; indirect, local recruitment of disaffected Muslim youth; and an emphasis on European passport-holders less likely to be stopped at airports.

"They've gone through a thorough process, given the increase of security that we've done on flying planes, of thinking, 'Is there a way we can still get on board and take airplanes down?' ... This is an extremely talented, thinking group."

Although terrorist groups in Iraq and elsewhere have long been described as having al-Qaida links, none of the significant attacks carried out since Sept. 11 have been proven to have been directly authored or orchestrated by the group. Instead, intelligence agencies here and in Europe have described bin Laden as providing "inspiration" to a new generation of "radicalized" Muslim youth spurred by their cultural isolation in the West and solidarity with Islamic battles in the Middle East.

U.S. intelligence officials now identify the war in Iraq as the single most effective recruiting tool for Islamic rebels.

But the alleged British plot, one intelligence official insisted Thursday, "is really, really serious. ... We have reason to believe that this is an al-Qaida-related operation. I don't mean in terms of a bunch of wannabes finding inspiration" in bin Laden.

During the early days of the U.S.-led coalition's invasion of Afghanistan, both bin Laden and al-Zawahri, along with a number of their lieutenants, were driven from Afghanistan into the mountainous border region with Pakistan. Although those two have remained alive and at liberty, the removal of other major figures from the scene — Muhammad Atef killed in November 2001, and Khalid Abu Zubaidah, Ramzi Binalshibh and Khalid Sheik Mohammed, among others, captured in 2002 and 2003 — has led the Bush administration, from the White House on down, to say that the leadership has been "decapitated" and the organization itself severely "degraded."

Depending on its objective of the moment, the White House has described bin Laden both as on the run and living in caves, and as a continuing major threat to the United States.

The question of whether he still maintains control over active terrorist operations around the world is one of constant debate and analysis within the U.S. intelligence community.

Bin Laden has made frequent statements on audio tapes distributed over the Internet, and al-Zawahri appeared in a videotape as recently as last month. Both claim to lead a widespread movement involved in virtually every Islamic battle from Iraq to Indonesia that is building an anti-Western "caliphate," or Muslim empire, across the world.

Intelligence officials describe the tapes as al-Qaida's attempt to appear "relevant" and in control of widespread events it may have little to do with. But while recent intelligence analyses have focused more on the increasing likelihood of smaller, more localized terrorist attacks such as the bombing of the London underground, few have discounted bin Laden's desire to stage another major assault.

"Al-Qaida hasn't been eliminated," said a senior administration official, "it's metastasized. It's changing all the time."

Some outside experts faulted the U.S. government and its allies with allowing al-Qaida to regroup inside Pakistan after its ejection from Afghanistan. "Al-Qaida has been Pakistanized, if you will," said M J. Gohel, of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London security think tank.

Others were withholding judgment on al-Qaida ties to the British plot.

"I would say that the core of the organization has suffered some serious blows," said Daniel Byman, director of Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. "It's harder for them to do large-scale operations successfully, and their ability to do long-term planning of catastrophic events has degraded. But they still have a number of skilled operatives and global connections, and a strong desire" to stage such attacks.