Less-active hurricane season expected

MIAMI — The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly less active than originally predicted, federal forecasters said Tuesday.

Forecasters now expect there to be 12 to 15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

Three or four could be major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, forecasters said.

Government scientists made their first prediction in May, saying the season could produce 13 to 16 named storms, and eight to 10 hurricanes, four to six of which could become major.

There have been only three tropical storms and no hurricanes so far, but August through October are typically the most active months of the season.

Officials revised their forecast because of wetter-than-predicted conditions over the Pacific Ocean, which caused slightly stronger upper-level winds over the Caribbean, hurricane center meteorologist Christopher Landsea said. Those winds can rip apart storms and stop them from becoming hurricanes.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic also are not as high as first expected, forecasters said.

Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic has averaged 15 named storms, just over eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the hurricane center. Long-term averages are 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major ones.