Big fear: War may explode all across Mideast

Once again, Lebanon is burning. Once again, rockets are raining down on northern Israel. Once again, the region that has seen war erupt on average every six years since 1948 stands on the brink of conflagration, one that could engulf the entire Middle East in dangerous new ways.

As Israel presses its offensive against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement deep into Lebanese territory and Hezbollah defiantly launches missiles over the border, U.S. and Lebanese officials are predicting no early end to a crisis that many fear could rapidly escalate out of control.

With their act of bravado in seizing two Israeli soldiers last week, Hezbollah guerrillas unleashed a volatile brew of competing agendas, sectarian rivalries and unresolved hostilities that extend far beyond tiny Lebanon, to include Iran, Syria, the Palestinian territories and the continuing war in Iraq.

"The situation in the Middle East can get out of control very quickly. What seems like a border flare-up can turn into a regional conflict in a matter of days," said Michael Oren, a military historian and senior fellow at the Shalem Center, a Jerusalem academic institute.

"I think this can be seen as the beginning of a regional conflict," he added. "How can you stop it? There doesn't seem to be a diplomatic option."

This is not yet a regional war. But the conflict has moved far beyond the usual cross-border spats that regularly embroil Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah guerrillas.

Israel has hinted that Syria could be next unless Hezbollah is restrained. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has warned that an attack on Syria would be viewed as an attack on Iran. Hezbollah has declared that it is ready for "open war."

President Bush has declined to call for a cease-fire. Lebanese officials in Beirut say they believe the United States is unlikely to press for one, as the fighting could weaken the position of Hezbollah and, by proxy, Syria and Iran, according to a senior Lebanese diplomat.

The danger, however, is that Hezbollah will feel pressured to respond with greater force, further escalating the crisis and possibly drawing Israel into strikes against Syria or Iran, the diplomat said.

In Washington, a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that the situation could worsen significantly in coming days. A "fairly long and drawn-out process" lies ahead, he said.

But Middle East conflicts have a habit of not only dragging on but also spiraling, and this one easily could take on dangerous new proportions, analysts warn.

In Tehran, most ordinary Iranians are convinced that Hezbollah's move was timed to ease pressure on Iran and its nuclear program at the Group of Eight summit and at the U.N. Security Council this week, said Babak Rahimi, who is on the Iranian and Islamic studies staff at the University of California, San Diego, and is currently visiting Tehran. "That's the rumor here, that the timing of this is not a coincidence," he said.

However, the ferocity of Israel's response has caught Iranians off guard, in turn fueling the convictions of hard-liners who believe U.S. pressure on Iran's nuclear program is just a prelude to an inevitable attack against Iran. Many in the Muslim world consider Israel a puppet of the United States. "They're saying this nuclear stuff is just a ploy, and that what is happening shows that their true intention is to attack us down the road," Rahimi said.

Pressing the fight against Hezbollah represents a dangerous gamble not only for Israel but also for the United States.

One risk is that Lebanon will fragment, reigniting the civil war that ravaged the country for 15 years, and further destabilizing the region. The new government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora is fractured, weak and in no position to restrain Hezbollah.

Notably, this is the same democratically elected government hailed last year by U.S. officials after the dramatic Cedar Revolution forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

For the United States, there is the additional risk of a backlash in Iraq, where the Israeli assault on Shiite Hezbollah has angered many Iraqis and where radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has emerged as one of the most formidable political and military figures in the fragile Shiite-led coalition government.

In visits to Tehran and Damascus this year, al-Sadr pledged the service of his private militia in support of "any Arab government" attacked by the United States.

"You will see an increase of radicalism in Iran, in Lebanon, and most definitely in Iraq," Rahimi predicted. "I'm sure Muqtada Sadr is enjoying all of this very much."

There is also a risk for Hezbollah that its bravado could backfire. Its stature as the only militia permitted to carry arms under the terms of the cease-fire agreement that ended Lebanon's civil war is predicated on its role as the defender against Israeli aggression. And the latest clashes with Israel have given Hezbollah the opportunity to assert that role.

But as Lebanese contemplate the prospect of another war, some are starting to question the wisdom of allowing the militia to operate unchecked along the Israeli border.

Hezbollah also has won little support from Arab governments that have been increasingly unnerved by the empowerment of the Shiite majority in Iraq as a result of the U.S.-backed democratization project there, and by the increased leverage that has given Iran in the region.

Arab condemnations of the Israeli onslaught have been at best tepid. And at the White House, spokesman Tony Snow took the unusual step of quoting directly from a Saudi Arabian statement on the conflict.

A "distinction must be made between legitimate resistance [by Palestinians] and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside Lebanon and those behind them without ... consulting and coordinating with Arab nations," according to the statement, released by the official state news agency, SPA.

"These elements should bear the responsibility for their irresponsible actions, and they alone should end the crisis they have created," it said.

Syria also has been uncharacteristically quiet.

"The official position here is that Syria withdrew from Lebanon and has nothing to do with Lebanon. Syrian officials are saying nothing," said Ibrahim Hamidi, Damascus bureau chief for the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. "They don't want to be involved."

In the long run, any escalation of violence in the region, even if contained within Lebanon's borders, risks provoking a broader radicalization that will ill-serve America's interests, said Anthony Cordesman, a top U.S. national-security analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Every Israeli action against Arabs feeds Arab anger against the U.S., and undermines its influence," he said. "Regardless of any cease-fires or short-term outcomes, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Islamist extremists like al-Qaida, and Iraqi hard-liners like Sadr can play a spoiler role at any time, and broaden the conflict at minimal risk."