Hezbollah flexes its muscle

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Hezbollah has long been described as a "state within a state," a Shiite mini-government boasting close ties to Iran and Syria, the country's largest political party and its most potent armed force.

But Wednesday's move across the border to capture two Israeli soldiers went a step further: Hezbollah acted as the state itself, threatening to drag Lebanon into a war.

The country's elected government was still in meetings Wednesday, arguing over what to say in public, when Hezbollah chief Sayed Hassan Nasrallah stood before television cameras with a pointed threat for the ruling elite.

"Today is a time for solidarity and cooperation, and we can have discussions later. I warn you against committing any error. This is a national responsibility," said the turbaned Shiite cleric.

Any criticism of the capture of the two Israeli soldiers — by citizens or officials — would be tantamount to colluding with Israel, said Nasrallah.

Troubled past

A look at major events between Lebanon and Israel:

1978: Israeli forces invade south Lebanon to attack Palestinian guerrillas, retaliating for an attack on an Israeli bus that killed more than 35 people near Tel Aviv. U.N. calls for Israeli withdrawal and a peacekeeping force.

1982: Israel invades again, occupying part of Beirut and leaving up to 14,000 Lebanese and Palestinian civilians dead. Shiite Muslims form the militant group Hezbollah to oppose the Israeli occupation.

September 1982: The Israeli army moves into Beirut a day after Lebanese president-elect Bashir Gemayel is killed in a bomb explosion. Israeli-allied Christian militiamen massacre hundreds of Palestinians in Beirut's Sabra and Chatila refugee camps.

1985: Israel retreats south, but sets up a border buffer zone in south Lebanon. Israel trades three Israeli soldiers captured by Palestinian guerrillas in 1982 for 1,150 Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners.

1992: Israeli jets kill Hezbollah leader Sheik Abbas Mussawi.

July 1993: Israel launches major assault on south Lebanon to eradicate Hezbollah and Palestinian guerrillas.

April 1996: Israel launches an operation in another bid to end guerrilla attacks. Israeli artillery kills more than 100 Lebanese civilians sheltering at a U.N. base in Qana, south Lebanon.

1997: Twelve Israeli soldiers are killed in commando raid on south Lebanon.

May 2000: Israeli troops withdraw from buffer zone, ending 18 years of occupation. In October, Hezbollah captures three Israeli soldiers, later found dead, in a border attack. Later, the group kidnaps an Israeli businessman.

2004: Hezbollah swaps the Israeli businessman and the remains of the three Israeli soldiers for 436 Arab prisoners. Israel still holds at least three Lebanese prisoners, and Hezbollah vows to win their release.

2006: Hezbollah seizes two Israeli soldiers in cross-border raid.

The Associated Press

He was careful to frame the raid as a noble strike on behalf of Lebanon and Arab nationalism. Its goal was to free Lebanese and other Arab prisoners now held in Israel, he said, by forcing Israel into a prisoner swap.

Nasrallah left unclear how many prisoners he was demanding.

Raising the stakes

Crossing the border to capture Israeli soldiers was a long- and carefully planned move, but also an audacious departure for the guerrillas. Since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah has generally limited its attacks on Israelis to one small patch of disputed land known as Shebaa Farms, which Hezbollah claims as Lebanese territory.

"It's a very dangerous escalation," said Timur Goksel, a longtime United Nations negotiator who now teaches at the American University of Beirut. "You can't anymore claim it's an act of resistance. It's an act of war."

In Lebanon, the action solidifies the group's position as an armed entity independent of government control at a time when it was coming under increasing pressure to give up its arms.

In the broader region, the move lends Hezbollah and Nasrallah the credibility of taking up the Palestinian cause at a time when other Arab leaders are standing silently by.

But the capture of the soldiers could also force Hamas and Israel even deeper into their standoff. In recent days, some Hamas officials had appeared to be edging toward a deal to release Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier seized in Gaza earlier this month. Now, it seems unlikely that Hamas and Israel will be able to conclude any such deal until the situation with Hezbollah is resolved.

Iran and Syria

Internationally, the timing turns the captures into a symbolic strike for Hezbollah's chief patrons, Iran and Syria.

Iran remains locked into a standoff with the West, particularly the United States, over its controversial nuclear ambitions. The United States also has accused Iran of improper meddling in the politics of oil-rich, war-ravaged Iraq. The Hezbollah move into Israel may, at minimum, distract U.S. officials from their confrontation with Tehran.

Syria also has clashed with the West over its support for Palestinian militants — including the sheltering of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal — as well as its suspected role in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. The U.S. also accuses Damascus of doing too little to prevent insurgents crossing its border into Iraq to fight a U.S.-led coalition.

The White House blamed Syria and Iran for the kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers, though Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa denied any role.

Last month, after Shalit was captured in Gaza, the Israeli air force further embarrassed the Syrians by plunging its planes into Syrian airspace and staging a flyover of the home of president Bashar al Assad. The buzzing of the president's house was widely interpreted as a warning to the Syrians for their support of Hamas, many of whose officials reside in Damascus.

Hezbollah's action Wednesday could be read, in part, as Syria's response.

Analysts said the Hezbollah operation could not be separated from events in Gaza, Syria and Iran. "It relieves Hamas of some of the pressure and aims at establishing a new balance of power in the region, a strategic balance of terror," said Bechara Charbel, editor in chief of Lebanon's Al-Balad daily.

The move also risks deepening divisions within the Arab world. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a top U.S. ally, expressed impatience with Syria on Wednesday, implicitly accusing it of scuttling his efforts to win the release of the Israeli held by the Palestinians.

And within Lebanon, there are dangerous fault lines. The Lebanese government, which includes two Hezbollah ministers but is dominated by anti-Syrians, distanced itself from the operation and rejected blame for the soldiers' kidnapping.

Among Lebanese struggling to cast off the taint of civil war and steer the country back to prosperity, calls for Hezbollah to disarm and incorporate itself into the Lebanese government and army have become increasingly vocal.

Dramatically linking Hezbollah with the cause of freeing Lebanese prisoners may help fend off that pressure.

Background information on Syria and on Lebanese reactions was reported by The Associated Press.