North Korea stirs up the neighborhood

BEIJING — When North Korea casts its eyes around the neighborhood, it sees a malleable South Korea and a reasonably sympathetic China and Russia that both share its hard-line Communist heritage.

Confidence that the three neighbors may be annoyed by Wednesday's missile tests but not threatened enough to react strongly allows North Korea to concentrate its energy on its real objectives.

The main object of North Korea's rattle-the-world strategy is the United States, analysts and diplomats say, since it is the only global power with the financial clout, military muscle and possible will to unseat the regime. And regime preservation is North Korea's first and foremost objective.

By creating a crisis, analysts say, North Korea hopes to be taken seriously and viewed as a credible threat, with an eye to leveraging that fear into political and economic concessions. It's concerned that Iran's nuclear crisis may be stealing its limelight.

And it may want to clean the slate on several rounds of six-party negotiations aimed at curtailing its weapons program attended by the two Koreas, China, Russia, Japan and the United States. Analysts say there are signs the regime is trying to back away from a very loose conceptual agreement worked out last fall before it decided to boycott the talks. With only one real card to play, the nuclear card, hard-liners may fear that greater global integration even on a modest scale will loosen their grip.

But the U.S. is far over the horizon, distracted by other conflicts and beyond the evident range of North Korean missiles. By aiming its missiles in the direction of Japan, however, which it views as a "U.S. proxy" state, it hopes Japan will also serve its aims by putting more pressure on the U.S.

Adding to this North Korean view is a calculated risk that Japan has almost no stomach for tough unilateral retaliation — for various historical and cultural reasons including its move away from militarism after World War II — preferring instead to let the United States or United Nations take the lead.

Indeed, after warning of dire consequences including strong economic sanctions in the lead up to the launch, Japanese officials have issued a measured response. "We'll implement new sanctions depending on North Korea's attitude and the international community's will," said the chief Cabinet spokesman Shinzo Abe.

"North Korea is public enemy No. 1 in Japan," said Peter Beck, based in Seoul with the International Crisis Group. "But other than causing some annoyance to Pyongyang, any economic sanctions Japan undertakes on its own won't be bringing them to their knees."

Even North Korea's closest ally, China, privately admits its leverage over the isolated Stalinist state is limited.

Hand in glove with North Korea's paranoia-fueled world view is a finely honed understanding of how to divide and exploit its neighbors. But bad telemetry put a modest kink in its bid to drive a wedge between its marginally sympathetic neighbors — China, Russia and South Korea — and the United States and Japan.

Russians riled up

Analysts say having a missile apparently land close to Russian shores was not part of the plan.

"The missile launches carried out by [North Korea] were damaging to peace and stability in the region," a Russian Foreign Ministry statement said. "In addition, according to reports received, which are now being rechecked, fragments of a missile launched by [North Korea] fell in direct proximity to Russian shores."

Russian state-run Channel One television reported that one of the missiles fell within a few dozen miles of the Russian Far East city of Nakhodka, causing "real alarm among the city's population."

"From early morning, people were besieging the offices of local officials with one and the same question: How dangerous was this incident?" correspondent Mariya Shubina reported. "Some people tried to force their way into the North Korean consulate to get an explanation."

That's not to preclude North Korea's neutral-to-friendly neighbors, China, Russia and South Korea, from issuing statements of condemnation or promising relatively modest steps against the regime.

At the end of the day, however, North Korea remains reasonably confident that none of the three feel directly threatened enough to take serious action.

Not only are China, South Korea or Russia unlikely to support any possible U.S. military strike against North Korea, Pyongyang also remains reasonably confident that U.N.-veto holders China and Russia will maintain their opposition to economic sanctions tied to their respective self-interests.

These include historical loyalty to North Korea, fear of further regional instability and a reluctance to see U.S. influence expand further in the neighborhood.

"Conducting missile tests is of course not a good thing," said Zhang Liangui, an analyst with the Central Party School's Institute of International Strategy in Beijing. "But it's not so serious that it will cross China's red line."

In Zhang's view, the red line that would truly threaten China would be an actual nuclear test.

China's motives

China, North Korea's closest ally and as such the key to any punitive action, would rather have a sick but marginally stable ally on its doorstep rather than face the prospect of millions of economic refugees storming across its border, threatening its own internal stability.

"Western countries think nuclear nonproliferation is China's only interest," said Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing. "But China must consider several interests including China-North Korea relations and instability threats."

China's one-party state is not particularly bothered by strong-arm rule at home or abroad. And it shares with North Korea an inordinate willingness to do what it takes to retain the jobs of its top leaders.

In a sign of its bid to underplay the crisis, news of the missile launch displayed on Sina and Sohu, China's top two Internet portals, shortly after the testing had disappeared by Thursday in a nation where news is heavily controlled.

Straining relations with allies and earning global condemnation doesn't particularly worry North Korea. In fact it's made a near-religion out of going it alone with its juche, or self-reliance, philosophy as it has become increasingly impoverished and isolated.

Now that North Korea has the world's attention, what will it do with it? Probably more uncertainty, analysts say, adding that they see little immediate chance for constructive negotiations.

Los Angeles Times reporters Bruce Wallace, David Holley and Yin Lijin contributed to this report.